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Sunday, March 26th, 2006

ON THOUGHT

Cruising my archives reveals I’ve done some thinking…about thinking. Some of you, like Dan of tdaxp , are very familiar with these but newer readers might not have caught these posts on the nature of cognition when they first appeared.

Understanding Cognition Part I.
Understanding Cognition Part II.
Understanding Cognition PartIII.

Creativity as the Key to escape Self-Referential Paradigms

Metacognition

Complexity, leadership, ideology and perception

Enjoy ( Or not, either way, here they are) !

Sunday, March 26th, 2006

GURU vs. GURU ON ASSESSING RISK OF TERRORISM

Art Hutchinson of Mapping Strategy has a bone to pick with Bruce Schneier’s assessment of cost to benefit ratios in counterrorism security practices:

“Terrorism is fundamentally not a forecastable thing. That’s especially true during a period of innovation and expansion in that sad, sick “industry”. The fact that the peak death number changed so suddenly makes a conservative rational calculation based on past history just as tenuous as any radical emotional guess based on fear. Given that the trend is clearly up however, and that the last jump was by 10X, it is only prudent that we err to the side of assuming high and being wrong than assuming low and waving bye-bye to New York or Los Angeles.

…The larger point? What’s tough about predicting terrorism is also tough about predicting discontinuous change in business. Applying the same forecasting methodology to discontinuous possible ‘left-field’ problems as to well-understood, clearly bounded problems with deep actuarial data-sets is like trying to eat soup with a knife. A tool that’s extremely precise and powerful for some jobs is utterly misguided for that one.”

[emphasis in the original]

Much of what Art is discussing relates to “creative uncertainty“, a factor that I believe will become relevant rather than less as terror risk downshifts from highly centralized hierarchical networks to scale free networks to superempowered individuals seeking to pull off one -man 9/11’s. The incentive for terror groups is that the loss of control and the magnitude of effect acheivable in operational parameters caused by downshifting is partially compensated by the much greater difficulty security agencies have in detecting and preventing attacks coming from the decentralized end of the spectrum.

LINKS:

Younghusband -“Leaderless Resistance” at Coming Anarchy

John Robb – “Louis Beam

Sunday, March 26th, 2006

SUNDAY RECOMMENDED READING

Rob at Businesspundit gets pride of place today as he launches a volley against the wisdom of crowds and emerging long tails with “The Wisdom of Niches: Why Experts Still Matter“.

I take issue with Rob’s generalization of the relative value of depth and breadth but this contrarian post is one that deserves wider play in the blogosphere. It was excellent.

Peter Lavelle of Untimely Thoughts has his weekly round-up of expert opinion in ” Is there a post-Soviet teleology? “. Closely related, at America-Russia.net, is “Putin’s China visit shifts power” on Putin’s summit with Hu that emphasized a ” strategic partneship” revolving around energy market access and develpment as peer to peer military cooperation.

This is New Core integration and the United States should play a more active part in it – for that matter, it would be good to actually develop an engaged relationship with Russia rather than playing reactive, ad hoc, diplomacy.

Paul D. Kretkowski at Beacon posts on “Public Diplomacy and the Video Gamer “. Hmmm, perhaps Everquest and World of Warcraft can win the war on terror.

Former DIA analyst, Rick Francona at Middle East Perspectives deciphers the DoD’s”Iraq Perspectives Project“.

That’s it.

Saturday, March 25th, 2006

REST FOR THE WICKED

Vacation time ! Staying in town but enjoying the time off from work to catch up on various tasks, read, relax and -of course – blog ! Something I have been very hard pressed to find time for lately.

But first tonight Mrs. Zenpundit has me hosting a small party this evening so the blogfest will have to wait at least a few more hours.

Friday, March 24th, 2006

“THE PRESIDENTIAL SEARGENT-MAJOR IS HERE TO SEE YOU GENERAL ABIZAID”

Josh over at the Adventures of Chester is promoting an idea to break the natural tendency toward self-referential group-think that emerges at the highest levels of military command – give the President of the United States his own Sergeant-Major.

Technically, of course, to paraphrase LBJ, they’re all the president’s seargent-majors but it could hardly hurt President Bush to receive the unvarnished perspective of a senior career NCO, fresh from combat in Iraq. This was the very reason that the position of Sergeant-Major of the Army was created, to give the brass the perspective of the NCO and enlisted ranks and this proposal would merely extend the feedback up to the Commander-in-Chief.

As Josh wrote:

“Now tie it all together. You can see it, yes? What the President needs is his own Sergeant Major – a directed telescope on the battlefield reporting directly to him. Not his staff, not the White House Spokesman or the Press Pool. The chain goes straight to The Man himself.

This is not hard to envision. Grab any of a number of Sergeants Major out there who are now retired. They have made careers of making gut calls in all manner of odd situations. Grab a guy who used to be in Delta Force, or the 1st Marine Division SgtMaj. You could grab an officer if you preferred (ahem: my email address is in the sidebar), but if it was me, I’d have a senior enlisted man, the type who’s harder than woodpecker lips. Whoever he is, he must be able to communicate very very very well. Then give him an armored four door humvee, a translator, and a couple of shooters to be a mini-brute squad. That’s all he’ll want if he’s the kind I have in mind. He can always hop on a bird if needs to. Get him some nice equipment too — a camera, a sat phone, etc.

Then set him loose. Tell him to go to whatever is interesting and report whatever he thinks necessary. Give him no format whatsoever. No timeframes whatsoever. Or, if you know of a particular operation that needs checking up on, send him there.

One more thing he needs: a little letter signed by POTUS that says, “This man may go wherever he wishes. Do not impede him.” He can laminate that and put it in his vest and that’s all he’ll need for access. “

A bit romantic. Commanders will always, in time-honored fashion, pull out the stops to impress any fact-finding VIP but one reporting directly to the President of the United States is going to have to be careful he does not get lost in the maze of Potemkin villages that will be built for him.

But overall, a good idea. One that may give senior officers and Pentagon civilian apppointees a few heart attacks


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