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Thursday, February 16th, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING PART II.

Dr. Barnett on “Russia’s two steps backward, one step forward

As a point of personal interest, I wish Tom would write on Russia more often than he does as he began his career as an East Bloc specialist and that’s my original area of interest as well ( I have often thought that if Dr. Barnett, T.M. Lutas and I ever sat down together we’d inevitably end up discussing Ceaucescu). Here Tom critiques the vapidity of Putin’s Siloviki State – with his ” clan” having triumphed utterly, Putin is like Robert Redford in ” The Candidate” asking ” What do I do now ?”

The problem is, the truly democratic Duma alternatives to Putin are weak, divided, unpopular and corrupt. That Putin is the only game in town may be annoying, but Russia unraveling as a state would make Iraq look like a retirement home.

Kingdaddy” at Arms and Influence on “Counterterrorism is easier, part I

I confess to being a fan of the extended analysis posts of Kingdaddy. While I’m quite a few clicks to his political Right, Kingdaddy does his homework and assembles his argument with scholarly discretion; he’s not grinding an axe for anyone. Arms and Influence is definitely a blog worthy of being on more blogrolls.

Collounsbury at ‘Aqoul on ” Maghreb & Rumsfeld

Col has some interesting normative remarks on Algeria that I can’t really disagree with:

“The Algerian regime is a backwards, cantakerous ill-tempered vampire state whose only positive factor is that it is less reprehensible than the takfiri Salafiste murderers that it fought for the past decade. But only marginally so.”

The only attraction of this once rabidly pro-Soviet pack of bastards is their demonstrable commitment (and reasonable competence at) to slaughtering the worst kind of Islamist lunatics.
‘Aqoul as a blog, I must note, is rising in the world these days.

Dr. Von on ” Our Use of Light

Physics is a good dose of reality and the nature of light has a critical impact on our perception of that reality – at least for those not congenitally blind.

That’s it !

Wednesday, February 15th, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING PART I.

Sifting gold from the sandbed of the greater blogosphere.

Carl Conetta, the director of The Project on Defense Alternatives has an analysis of the QDR up that is well worth checking out.

It is interesting on how many pundits and defense intellectuals Left, Right and Center are coming to the consensus that the QDR was an exercise in raw bureaucratic politics at the expense of national security and the war effort. Trust me, I’m all for a big Navy and warplanes so high-tech that they can travel through time, but some realism is in order about our priorities. We need a bigger Army. We need sustained deployability. We need to invest in the guys on the ground.

Next is not a post but a website:

WatchingAmerica is relatively new. A translator site for foreign news stories about America and American policy. How good the translations are I have to leave up to those with linguistic skills to tackle and review ( Dave, Col, Chirol, Curzon, Younghusband, Raf….). The effort invested here appears to be sizable.

John Robb at Global Guerillas – “EMERGENT INTELLIGENCE IN OPEN SOURCE WARFARE

A really great post. ” Emergence” is one of the critical concepts for understanding the world globalization ( The others include scale-free networks, modularity, resilience, consilience, evolution and nonzero sum .)

Dan at tdaxp has a skillfully rendered and very interesting in terms of cognition two-part series, OODA-PISRR, Part I: The Social Cognition Loop and Part II.

Dan however, has only scratched the surface of ” how to get smarter”. He has left out, for example, greater mental efficiency in learning in terms of processing speed flowing from more skillful, perceptive, panoramic powers of observation being understood correctly in shorter units of time. Perhaps there is more. I’ll have to ponder this but nonetheless an excellent post !

More to come…..

Sunday, February 12th, 2006

A CHANGE IN PRIORITIES

Unfortunately, I must report that an old friend passed away the other day after a grueling battle with cancer. I had known him for almost thirty years and he was more than just a friend, being the father of several of my closest friends from early childhood and who was, at times, a bit of a father figure for me as well.

Consequently, posting may be light for a few days.

Saturday, February 11th, 2006

LESS A CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS THAN CIVILIZATION’S UNIVERSAL STRUGGLE AGAINST BARBARISM

At Whirledview, Patricia Lee Sharpe has an outstanding post on the larger issue that the so-called “cartoon crisis”, partly genuine and partly orchestrated political theater, epitomizes:

“Let’s broaden the context for any discussion of the political cartoons that cropped up in Denmark last September. Let look back to a moment in the very recent past when much of the world was trying to prevent a stunning act of iconoclasm.

Certain Muslims had threatened to destroy some precious images belonging to another religion. Buddhists protested, because the images under threat were images of Buddha. Art lovers protested because the sculptures, they said, were an ancient and irreplaceable human heritage.

What happened? The Taliban of Afghanistan ignored all appeals. They shattered the huge Buddha statues at Bamian. They were also set on destroying all the Buddhist materials at the national museum in Kabul. Fortunately museum officials (also Muslims, please note) had done their best to hide or disguise the vulnerable items and many have survived to serve their proper function as part of the history of Afghanistan. (Note: the Taliban could have begged the museums of the world to remove the objectionable items (small or bulky) from Afghanistan, but total destruction not preservation

…The current demand to protect “religious sensibilities or sensitivities” would be far more credible if there were more remorse in the Muslim world over the destruction of the Bamian treasures. In addition, the “popular” nature of the protesting is highly suspect. There had been little or no violence until a gathering of Muslim heads of state in Mecca in December produced an inflammatory joint statement.”

Very true. Islamic civilization has an amazing cultural heritage, of incredible breadth and diversity stretching back almost fourteen-hundred years. Most Muslims, as Juan Cole pointed out, did not engage in violent protest over cartoons in a Danish newspaper. Neither the elite nor the devout middle-class of the Muslim world are embassy burners or jihadists. These things should be remembered.

But as Germany, once the apex of European culture and science, fell into the hands of a brutal and barbaric political minority, the Muslim world appears to be daunted by the barabarism of the minority of postmodern, neo-Salafi radicals with their engineering degrees from German universities and the takfiri -venom rhetoric of the Mosque-addict. These fanatics oppose civilization itself, be it in the form of a tolerant, cosmolpolitan, modernizing Islamic state or the secular West. What I wrote at the time of the destruction of the Buddhist statues of Bamian holds true today:

“What has stirred the world’s wrath over the Buddhist statues is the Taliban’s sheer defiance of not only civilizational norms but itscontemptuous rejection of civilization itself, of which the impulse tocreate and preserve art for its own sake is an exemplary value. A morecalculated gesture of purified barbarism would be hard to imagine. Notthat this is surprising because the Taliban are in fact unreconstructed tribal barbarians even if they may have laptops. cell phones and
mechanized armor at their disposal. The Taliban does not oppose Western
civilization so much as they do any complex and rationally ordered society
that generates ideas, Buddhism for example, foreign to their narrow and
primitive cultural horizons. The Taliban’s wanton destruction merited the near unanimous outrage of nations that it received.”

The Jihadi -Takfiri radicals by their words and deeds have marked themselves as the enemy of all mankind. We can neither ignore them nor make concessions on the nature of Western society to their grandiose, world-historical, totalitarian claims on behalf of Islam, a religion they interpret with the greatest selectivity to meet their current political need. The devout middle class of the Muslim world, ultimately, will have to choose where to throw in their lot, with a global modernity which can accomodate ascetic piety if it does not trouble others holding different views or with the mentality of the suicide belt and the videotaped beheading.

There is no third way.

ADDENDUM:

Oliver Roy on the Cartoon crisis ( Hat tip: the UK Spectator magazine)

Thursday, February 9th, 2006

MORE FROM 4GW

Fabius Maximus – ” The Fate of Israel” at DNI

Well, this one should set off some sparks. This post represents part II of an at least three part series by Fabius at DNI. Part I. can be found here. I see that John Robb linked yesterday as well where a discussion has begun in the comments section.

I prefer the Boydian ” constructive” description of grand strategy to this one used by Fabius:

“Grand Strategy: a state’s collective policy with respect to the external world. Paul Kennedy defined it as “the capacity of the nation’s leaders to bring together all of the elements {of power}, both military and nonmilitary, for the preservation and enhancement of the nation’s long-term … best interests” (from his “Grand Strategies in War and Peace”). From a Trinitarian perspective, it focuses and coordinates the diplomatic and military efforts of a state’s People, Government, and Army.”

On the other hand, his primal strategy is actually closer to Boyd’s “theme for vitality and growth“. It would also be harmonious with my concept of state resiliency:

Primal Strategy: often found in the early years of a society when its people have a “single-minded” commitment to a goal, often just a drive to grow. A “primal strategy” is an expression of a people’s core beliefs. It is non-intellectual, with no need for theories and plans.”

Getting to the specifics of the case of Israel and the Palestinians as argued by Fabius he has hit on an important point regarding emigration, that does represent a strategic threat to Israel’s survival. The Palestinians however will not gain the incremental surrender that Fabius expects if in the interim they manage to pull off a ghastly act of mass destruction terrorism inside Israel; a coup numerous Arab nationalist and Islamist terrorist groups would gladly attempt. Such an event that results in the deaths of tens of thousands of Israelis will instantly change the moral calculus for world opinion, particularly if the attack involved poison gas. We can expect that the Israeli leadership would then move beyond the current policy of unilateral separation from the Palestinians to expelling them en masse from the West Bank.

Yes, this would be ethnic cleansing and yes this will cost Israel much Western support but national survival would take precedence over any other consideration for Jerusalem and the Palestinian demographic advantage would then be rendered irrelevant.

ADDENDUM:

I am really behind the blogging curve lately but I want to point out that since 4GW is the theme , Dan of tdaxp had a post recently featuring the observations of Dr. Chet Richards on John Boyd’s OODA Loop


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