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CIVIL WAR WITHIN AN INSURGENCY?

From Memeorandum:

The New York Times has an article discussing the increasing clashes between Sunni nationalist insurgent groups and the well-funded Islamist terrorist group, al Qaida in Mesopotamia, run by Musab al-Zarqawi.

While we should not overestimate this, the story is highly plausible given the extremist ideas of Zarqawi which are far more takfiri–Kharijite oriented than even the ideology of the main branch of al Qaida run by bin Laden and al-Zawahiri. The predominance of Saudis and Saudi money in al Qaida Iraq squares with the earlier analysis by the Jamestown Foundation and a more recent one.

A point which indicates that the Saudi security services are either tasked beyond their means by the magnitude of pro-Jihadi sentiment in the population that their own Wahhabi-Salafist ideology has stoked or very little effort is going to stem the flow of volunteers and cash northward (most likely because, as with the previous exodus to Afghanistan, Saudi authorities are happy to see the troublemakers go. Some won’t be coming back).

PROJECT ON DEFENSE ALTERNATIVES

Carl Conetta, co-director of the Project On Defense Alternatives contacted me in regard to a complilation of articles covering the debate on ” Exit Strategies” for Iraq from across the political spectrum. They have their own point of view ( running left to centrist) but they did a good job collecting a wide sampling of analysis and documentation.

Much to look at on this site.

4GW FESTIVAL

DNI is rebutting learned critics…British generals are waving rhetorical swagger sticks….my head is spinning ;o)

Here they are boys and girls:

“4GW – Myth, or the Future of Warfare?A Reply to Antulio Echevarria” by Lt. Colonel John Sayen

“Critics of the Fourth Generation: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly” by William Lind

“Changing the Army for Counterinsurgency Operations” by Brigadier Nigel Aylwin-Foster, British Army ( Hat tip to Rodger at Duck of Minerva )

There’s also an excellent FPRI email distribution going around entitled ” Complex Irregular Warfare“, helpfully brought to my attention by Younghusband, which I cannot post without permission. You may, however, contact FPRI yourself to get on their distribution list.

GRACIAS TO THE BLOGOSPHERIC BIGFEET

On polar opposite ends of the political spectrum no less – Austin Bay and Crooks and Liars – much thanks for linking to Zenpundit. Particularly since N.Z. Bear changed his algorithim recently and sent my ranking out the window, the new traffic is greatly appreciated.

I’d also like to welcome the new readers, right or left, and hope that you’ll find enough here that’s pleasing (or annoying) enough to merit a return visit.

GAMING IRAN [ Update II ]

Here’s a good question for the ME area specialists and Iran watchers out there. Could the loon who serves as Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, be attempting to provoke a military conflict with the United States or Israel in order to provide a pretext for Ahmadinejad to move against his rivals in the power structure, notably Rafsanjani’s faction ?

Marc Schulman, in a post about Iran’s nuclear program, highlighted some interesting language by Ahmadinejad:

“Some politicians think we had a revolution so that some could hit others in the head and have one party ruling for some time and another party in opposition for some time. But we had a revolution to achieve a lofty goal, on the basis on the Expectation of the Return. Our interpretation is that the hand of the Almighty is putting every piece of the jigsaw puzzle of the future of the world in place in line with the goals of Islam.”

Quite neatly, an assertion of his own revolutionary and religious legitimacy and an implication that his rivals lack those credentials.

On the nuclear issue, Iran has in recent months gone out of its way to spurn the IAEA, the Europeans and even Iran’s economic partner and nuclear benefactor, Russia. Ahmadinejad, for his part, has been at pains to antagonize and threaten Israel using the most baiting, emotively activating language possible – though this rhetoric also plays to an Iranian constituency back home that Ahmadinejad seeks to cultivate.

Ahmadinejad does not need a military clash with America to solidify the regime’s grip but to loosen it. Having recently escaped an assassination attempt and seen his radical loyalists blocked from important posts by the Majlis, the extremist President, like his reformist predecessor Khatami, is being stymied by the corrupt clerical camarilla around “Supreme Guide” Khameini in the Guardian and Expediency Councils and in the parliament. Holding a weak hand in a rigged game, Ahmadinejad can only strengthen his position by upsetting the pieces on the board and finding an excuse – an emergency – to rewrite the rules.

Comments,as always, are welcome.

UPDATE: I see this post was picked up by our British friends at The Spectator – always an honor. They have also linked to William Lind as well.

UPDATE II. The Christian Science Monitor looked at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s millenialist religious ideology last month.