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Archive for March, 2006

Tuesday, March 21st, 2006

SEEKING AN ANTIDOTE FOR CULTURAL DEPRESSION

Bruce Kesler, my intrepid friend at The Democracy Project, has just recommended a writer, Richard Louv, in glowing terms:

“Louv is one of the most thought-provoking, original, common-sense columnists among the hundreds I see regularly. Louv is a true “moderate” but that is too bland a term for someone who ranges so widely over the landscape of ideas, culture, family, politics and reaches sometimes into our souls. Louv is not a moderate by seeking the medium or avoiding controversial positions, but by eschewing ideologies and rigidities and instead seeking promise across the spectrum of portents.”

Louv, a columnist for the San Diego Union-Tribune and an author, has an intriguing essay entitled “A Treatment For Cultural Depression”. Some key excerpts, some of which were already highlighted by Bruce:

“Blaming our malaise on our malaise is an old tradition. Cultural depression, an anthropological term, is the accumulation of societal ills, such as chronic substance abuse, that typically follows a major, widespread tragedy: an epidemic, a war, a terrorist attack. But when is cultural depression a matter of choice?

On every channel we hear the droning, Gothic whine. How special we are. We, the Information Overloaded and Equity Unstable. We, the people of the iPod Nation, worried about our hearing loss. If you listen too long to the bleating lawyer-commentators on the cable channels, or to the hyped-up TV shows about the perfect storm to come, or to the Rapture-ites who, as John Prine would put it, are “wishing for bad luck and knocking on wood,” then you would surely believe that the end is near.

…Well, buck up, Bucky, life isn’t half bad – and it could get better, with a little faith and effort. Yup, we’ve got problems that may yet do us in, but despair is unlikely to increase our odds. So far, no one has suggested a practical alternative to hope. By this, I am not recommending the “What? Me worry?” brand of optimism that assumes that invaders will be welcomed or that global warming does not exist.

Instead, we need an activist hope, the kind that comes by decision and without warranty – the realistic optimism that put men on the moon and fueled the civil rights movement. As has been said, Martin Luther King Jr.’s speech was not called “I Have a Nightmare.” In fact, we’re well positioned to build a better civilization, to create a new peace, to make life gentler for those who really do have something to worry about, to avoid the storm of storms.

Where fear and pessimism are commonplace in our national dialogue Mr. Louv is expressing America’s potential resilience. Not only resilience but the fact that the world is decidedly not going to hell in a handbasket ( Louv echoes the arguments of national security expert H.H. Gaffney who has pointed to the across the board improvements in the security environment since 1991). Islamism, which in my view represents a serious and real threat in the near and medium term, is not on a historical par with Communism or Fascism. Al Qaida is an enemy engaged in deadly war with the United States but it isn’t the Soviet Union. Not yet at any rate.

Fear is a useful tonic for mobilizing society for action. Certainly, in the 1930’s, Great Britain was dangerously complacent and the Parliament jeered at those like Winston Churchill who sought to raise the alarm. Only when disaster was upon the British in 1940 did they truly heed Churchill’s advice. Likewise, when the Soviets made clear their intent to dominate Western Europe without firing a shot in the aftermath of WWII, Truman and Acheson decided to ” scare the hell out of the country” rather than let America relapse into isolationism and watch Britain and France be Findlandized.

The long haul and a long war requires hope. Churchill and FDR had an Atlantic Charter and a United Nations to hold out as a vision. Truman presented the world the Marshall Plan, NATO and midwifed the seed that became the EU. Today the Bush administration champions democracy promotion which realist and partisan critics already are declaring to be dead on arrival. The critics are wrong.

Democracy however is a longitudinal game, a long-term bet and not a quick fix. Importantly, it is an option that plays on the moral level of conflict. What else is there to offer on the other side as an equivalent ? Dictatorship ? A Caliphate ? Who is going to buy that except at the point of a gun ? Our Islamist opponents are left with little more to offer their people than nihilism and martyrdom, poverty and war.

HAMAS, a terrorist organization, has been elected to govern the Palestinian territories because there was no other realistic option for Palestinian voters except Fatah corruption and thuggery. The Israelis are now sorely tempted to preemptively destroy the PA rather than let it fall under HAMAS control. This is an error. Let HAMAS first fail at governing through economic incompetence and weary the Palestinian people with religious zealotry. Liberal alternatives will emerge if the Islamists are given time to discredit themselves and if HAMAS initiates terrorism anew, then they have provided Israel with a casus belli for their own destruction.

We should look with a keen eye at our own faults without flinching but our faults and mistakes are not the whole story. We have tremendous strengths as well and we should begin to use them.

Tuesday, March 21st, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING

Art Hutchinson, the strategic thinking guru of Mapping Strategy had a burst of fine posts last week including “Executives, Prediction Markets, and Wall Street” and “The International Intelligence Summit – Rehearsing Divergent Futures“.

Dr. Nexon at Duck of Minerva tackles the recent article on ” Fact vs. Faith” and draws a response from Marc at American Future.

Scott Adams, the creator of the “Dilbert” comic strip, posts an ode to Mob Rule.

Jeff Medcalf at Caerdroia quite sensibly points out the differences between ” Warfighting and Defense Secretarying

Sean Meade at Interact wants to clean house for steroid useat the MLB Hall of Fame ( I’m not sure how many players after 1972 will be left, but hey… )

That’s it.

Sunday, March 19th, 2006

CATEGORIZATION AND NOMINATIONS

Scanning my blogroll, which kind of evolves in a meandering fashion, here is one of the informal topical groups that comes to mind:

Middle East/Islamic World/Islamism:

Abu Aardvark
Aqoul
CENTCOM
Collounsbury
Counterterrorism Blog
Crossroads Arabia
Iraq the Model
JihadWatch
Juan Cole’s Informed Comment
Martin Kramer
Middle East Perspectives <-- NEW !
Sic Semper Tyrannis

I’m opening up the floor for nominations for high quality, informative blogs that deal with the Middle East, particularly if they add balance or provide a completely different perspective from what I already have on my blogroll. No conspiracy theorists, please.

Ideally I’m looking to add 1-3 new ones. You can email me or leave a rec in the comments section. Zenpundit doesn’t have a huge traffic ranking but it does get read occasionally in select quarters by some smart people so the bloggers will at least get that out of the link ( I grant you that I will probably get far more out of reading the new blogs but when situations mostly benefit me I tend to believe that all is right with the world).

Sunday, March 19th, 2006

CHAOS AND COMPLEX SYSTEMS 101

Dr. Von helpfully points us to this easy to grasp University of Texas tutorial on understanding Chaos Theory and its implications.

Saturday, March 18th, 2006

ABIZAID ON IRAN

General John Abizaid, CENTCOM commander, on Iran in his testimony to the Senate Armed Service Committee. Full text here:

“The situation with Iran is tense, and the possibility for miscalculation with U.S. forces remains high. CENTCOM forces in the region continue to watch Iran carefully to prevent any destabilizing activities that contribute to internal Iraqi or Afghan frictions, or threaten regional stability. Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons capability is particularly troubling. Iran seeks “creeping normalcy” that will permit international acceptance of its nuclear fuel cycle, while buying time for potential covert nuclear activities. We believe that Iran’s declared objective of self-sufficient nuclear fuel production is coupled with the ulterior goal of weapons production. Iran’s withdrawal from the IAEA’s Additional Protocol or the NPT could decrease the timeline necessary to produce a weapon. A nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically increase instability in the region and could pressure other countries in the CENTCOM AOR to consider acquiring such weapons.

Iranian-sponsored activities in Iraq continue to be unhelpful. Iran is pursuing a multi-track policy in Iraq, consisting of overtly supporting the formation of a stable, Shia Islamist-led central government while covertly working to diminish popular and military support for U.S. and Coalition operations there. Additionally, sophisticated bomb making material from Iran has been found in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Iraq.

While generally thought to be for defense, Iran continues to build a credible military capable of regional power projection. It has the largest military capability in the region and a record of aggressive military action in and around the Arabian Gulf. Its power projection capabilities stem primarily from its navy and ballistic missiles. Iran’s military consists of over 350,000 personnel with an additional 300,000 trained reserve/Basij Forces that could be mobilized in times of crisis. The Iranian Armed Forces include two distinct, parallel military organizations – the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Regular military forces. Each controls its own ground, naval, air, and air defense forces and equipment.

In addition to defending against external threats, the IRGC also focuses on an internal security mission and is the lead Iranian agency for supporting terrorism. Competition between the IRGC and Regular forces for limited resources and competing chains of command make Iranian military intentions difficult to decipher. This heightens our concern for the potential for miscalculation with U.S. forces in the region.

Iran’s ground forces are arrayed across the country with the majority of combat power along the Iran-Iraq border. The Iranian navies continue their rapid growth. The IRGC Navy has been developed primarily for the Strait of Hormuz scenario in which Iran would attempt to “internationalize” a conflict by choking off oil exports through the Strait. To disperse large quantities of recently purchased small boats, high speed missile boats, torpedo fast attack craft, and midget submarines, Iran has embarked upon an expansion project for naval bases throughout its littoral. Asymmetric military strategies and naval force modernization, a key national priority, enhance Iran’s capability for power projection in the region.

The IRGC Air Force maintains control over most of Iran’s ballistic missiles and rockets. The accuracy and reliability of its rocket systems vary, but Iran is capable of targeting all Gulf States, the Arabian peninsula, Israel, and U.S. and Coalition forces in the region with little warning.

In addition to Iran’s conventional and ballistic missile capabilities, another lethal aspect of Iran’s power projection is its ties to regional and global terrorism. Iran remains on the U.S. State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism and provides extensive support to the Lebanese Hezbollah and several Palestinian rejectionist groups. Along with this support comes influence. Additionally, Iran’s own intelligence elements are stationed throughout the CENTCOM AOR and beyond and are trained and prepared to execute terrorist attacks at the direction of Tehran.

As the diplomacy surrounding Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons plays out, CENTCOM will continue to vigilantly monitor Iran’s conventional force posture and maintain a strong naval, air, and ground capability to deter Iran from attempts at further destabilizing the region. “

Hat tip: SGT. Garth Gehlen, U.S. Army.


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