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Archive for August, 2006

Thursday, August 17th, 2006

THE VALUE OF COUNTERFACTUALS

Dave Schuler at The Glittering Eye had a short post on the New York Magazine series on what if 9/11 never happened ? Dave was unimpressed with what he read:

“Some of the pieces have minor insights; some are mildly interesting; most not particularly so.

I think a far more interesting question would be: what specific steps or policies could have been taken that might conceivably have precluded the likelihood of the attack occurring at all, ever?”

Dave was being kind. The series is a disappointing and starkly unimaginative waste of time to read. All the moreso that the magazine line-up included several well known historians who ought to be more practiced and fluent at counterfactual thinking.

Counterfactual thinking allows us to rexamine our premises and chains of logic by altering a critical data point. By looking for inconsistencies in the sequence of our counterfactual model compared to the factual record we test ourselves for bias and get a chance to reevaluate the variables in the historical record and our argument for causation. New points or angles appear when looking at the road not taken and the significance of the event itself may be cast in a new light.

Obviously, counterfactual models are interesting in proportion to the extent the event chosen represents a supposed “tipping point”. “What if the Nazis had invaded Great Britain during WWII?” or ” What if if the Greeks had lost the Persian War?” are more useful questions than “What if America won the Vietnam War ?” or ” What if Columbus had not discovered America ?”. The answer to the latter questions is that the history of the world would have proceeded apace without changing all that much – the Americas were due West from the Old World, they would have been discovered sooner rather than later. Somebody else would have invented the printing press if Gutenberg hadn’t. On the other hand, the Turks sacking Vienna in 1683 and spreading Islam to the Rhine ( or Paris) sends the history of the world on a very different course.

“What if ?” is sometimes almost as useful a question as asking ” Why not ?”.

Wednesday, August 16th, 2006

ISLAMISTS VS. “ISLAMOFASCISTS”

A desultory debate on the extent of totalitarianism within Islamism has reemerged in the blogosphere due to President Bush saying ” Islamic Fascist” in reference to Islamist terrorist groups. There’s a lot of objections to that term on pragmatic as well as technical grounds ( some Islamists are quietists, others accept democracy, some are “moderate” authoritarians, some are takfiri extremists with scores to settle against “apostate” Muslims) or the utility of the analogy.

Twentieth century totalitarianism in its Marxist, Nazi and Fascist manifestations have some commonalities with radical Islamism, notably opposition to liberal democracy, as well as important fundamental differences, radical atheism being a noteworthy example. Juan Cole’s assertion that Fascism is incompatible with Islamism because Islamists reject the nation-state ignores the fact that Nazis emphasized not the state ( that was Mussolini’s version) but the “Aryan race”. Hitler himself was emphatic on that point, that the German state was an inconsequential thing before the wellbeing of the German” racial community”. “Ein Reich, ein Volk, ein Fuhrer” puts the state at the bottom of the pyramid.

Quite frankly, the most radical Nazis looked forward to a postwar, de-Christianized, Judenfrei, European racialist superstate that incorporated all “teutonic” nationalities under Nazi dominion. State, race, religion – fascism is a collectivistic and exclusivist creed and religion is probably at least as durable an emotive basis for Fascism as nationalism or racism. While some radical Islamists have been ” eucumenical” in their desire to build a united, Islamist, Ummah others like the psychopathic Zarqawi took a violently takfiri and exclusionary approach to Caliphate-building.

Nevertheless, “Islamic Fascism” as a term has a number of problems given the diverse, at times inchoate and dynamic nature of radical Islamist movements. At HNN, Dr. Tim Furnish, a stern critic of radical Islamists, found ” Islamic Fasicism “, for his own reasons, as objectionable as did Juan Cole:

“Does this paradigm fit with the ideology of Islamic terrorists? That ideology has four major aspects: 1) a starting point of victim-hood, especially vis-à-vis the West and Christianity; 2) an intermediate goal of re-pietizing Islamic society via imposition of “true” shari`ah (Islamic law); 3) a long-term goal of re-creating the early Islamic ummah (community) under a new caliphate, which would eventually encompass the entire planet; and 4) the preferred methodology to achieve these goals of jihad. Put up against the characteristics of fascism, Islamic-based fundamentalist ideology seems obviously to share the emphasis on the group (the ummah) and a clear sense of being victimized. Also, since a caliphate, historically, has been essentially an Islamic monarchy, the dictatorial aspect should be included as common; likewise for repression of opposition, since pre-modern Islamic regimes (and, indeed, most modern ones) have not been known for their political tolerance. The other three elements of fascism—extreme nationalism or ideas of racial superiority, socioeconomic regimentation and extreme militarization—really are not prominent themes in Islamic political thought and praxis, today or in the past. So, definitionally, while “Islamic fascism” at first glance appears appropriate, upon more careful consideration its descriptive value is nominal at best.

A second point is that the term reinforces the questionable tendency of us in the West, and especially in the U.S., to see every new global threat as a reprise of Hitler and Nazi Germany. Perhaps this is because World War II was the last war that all Americans agreed was truly legitimate, for every war since then—Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq both times (albeit much less so the first time)—has had its critics. Whatever the reason, wouldn’t it be more useful to the conduct of, and debate about, the undeniable global problem of Islamic-based terrorism if we analyzed the issue on its own terms? The differences between Nazi Fascism and Islamic-based terrorism are myriad, starting with the fact that the former was a state ideology and the latter is not (at least not yet). And whatever one wishes to say about Usama bin Ladin and his ilk, they are not devotees of racial purity. Religious purity, to be sure—but that calls for a different response. “

In an intellectual parallel, there is a fashionable tendency to call every modern ( or historical) mass atrocity “genocide”. An ahistorical error which cheapens the value of the term for the actual victims of genocide and obscures what was unique about such horrors like American Slavery or China’s Cultural Revolution; rendering elusive the very characteristics that makes these terrible events worth examining in their own right.

Perhaps, we ought to accept that the crimes of Islamist terrorism and the delusions of Jihadi ideology are distinctive enough to stand on their own merits and not try to paint them over with swastikas or hammers and sickles.

Tuesday, August 15th, 2006

NEW SECURITY BLOG

Just became aware of:

Homeland Security Watch

Monday, August 14th, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING -DUAL EDITION

A selection from A+ bloggers with two posts apiece.

Tom Scudder at Aqoul with “Lebanon: UN Resolution 1701” and “15 ways of looking at a ceasefire

Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett with “Honoring Art Cebrowski’s legacy for what it is” and “Coming to an understanding with Jim Blaker

John Robb with ” THE COMING CONFLAGRATION ” and “AL QAEDA’S ACHILLES HEAL: RESIDUAL HIERARCHY” (err… should that be ” Heel” ? )

Don Surber with ” Bush should visit Castro ” and ” How to report on spying

Bruce Kesler at Democracy Project with “BBC Makes Joke of Itself ” and “Why not nationalized health care in the United States?

Purpleslog with “Video: Self-Portraits Photos of a Girl Taken Every Day For Three Years” and “Consequences of Open Source Espionage

Lexington Green at Chicago Boyz with “A German Ayn-Randian Guy Talking About Patriotism” and “Quote of the Day“.

The Drs. Eide at Neurolearning Blog with “What Reading Really Does for the Brain” and
The “Dark Side” of Expertise

That’s it !

Monday, August 14th, 2006

CHIROL’S TERROR TREE AS AN EXERCISE IN SOLVING A WICKED PROBLEM

Chirol of Coming Anarchy had an incisive post on terrorism ” The Terror Tree“, one that has already caught the attention of Dr. Barnett. An excerpt:

“If you take any given terror plot and look at it through the chart. If it fails but gets media attention like today’s, it still wins in terms of system disruption and creating fear. It would have done the same had it succeeded. The question is one of degree.

…Given the results graphed above, the only total failure is a plot which elicits no reaction. What would such a plot look like? Probably like something we’ve already seen, something that’s yesterdays news, something we are already checking for. Thus, no change is necessary

…When a terrorist can invest a few thousand dollars in a plot, even tens of thousands, and cause a hundred or thousand times more damage, things don’t look good but this is where network resiliancy comes in, but that’s a job for Dan and Mark. “

Dave, Jeff and I have been discussing “wicked problems” and Chirol’s graphic is an excellent visualization of the “wicked problem” represented by terrorism, which has the potential darwinian dynamic of “heads they win, tails we lose”. That is not the feedback loop the United States or the West should accept, and as Chirol has already noted, attention to the principle of resiliency offers a chance to mitigate, minimize or thwart the negative effects of terrorism. Resiliency will not solve the problem of terrorism but it helps limit the potential damage.

To respond to Chirol’s request, the ideal solution to counter system disruption attacks is to engineer all your physical systems, networks, grids, first and second responder plans with multiple layers of redundancy so that no particular “hub” represents a systemic “choke point” whose elimination brings the system in question to a grinding halt. In a country with, in some areas, two centuries of established infrastructure, this would be a financial nightmare to retrofit from the top down. The ideal solution ain’t going to happen here, but in rapidly developing nations, they might consider building all their new systems with great attention to lavishing resources on redundancy. The initially higher costs today ( which can be amortized) represent billions saved in terms of disasters avoided.

The practical solution for the U.S. is to build, as cheaply as possible, decentralized systemic alternatives to the most critical elements existing infrastructure, gaining redundancy by overlaying duplicate systems on top of one another. For example, a national wireless broadband network in addition to the heavily land-based internet-communications network. Being neither an engineer nor a high tech guru, there are more qualified people than myself to offer concrete examples or identify the most critical systems; but economically, given the size and complexity of the diverse systems used in United States, we need to shoot for cheap and simple solutions in order to increase our resiliency.

For more on enhancing resiliency against terrorism, I suggest looking at some of the past posts by Steve DeAngelis at ERMB – in particular, this one and this one.


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