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IMPORTANT ADDENDUM TO THINKING STRATEGICALLY/SYSTEMICALLY [ UPDATED]

Robin Burk of Random Probabilities and Winds of Change had the following comment in regards to large-system analysis and design that I thought would be as of much interest to my readers as it was to me:

“Speaking as someone who started in software engineering and is now working in decision analysis, I think you need to separate out several isses in large system design.First, there is the issue of causal feedback loops. That’s what you’re getting at when talking about “planning for success”. This is the domain of systems dynamics modeling.

Systems dynamics modeling is highly regarded by many public policy analysts for the very good reason that it captures 2nd and 3rd order effects of decisions.However, many decision analysts will say that the difficulty with systems dynamics modeling is that for it to be predictive of system behavior you often have to be able to estimate various rates of change in key factors — and that can be very difficult to do. However, it can be used to generate hypothetical best / worst / most likely scenarios, useful for diagnosing whether ones assumptions were on target.

A different approach that is useful when thinking about complex systems is multiple objective decision analysis. This technique recognizes that hard problems are often hard because we have multiple objectives we want to achieve. MODA offers ways to identify those objectives, prioritize them and tie them to specific evaluation measures. Alternative system designs are then simulated or otherwise modeled to predict expected behavior on each evaluation measure and a resulting weighted value score identifies which alternative provides the best expected overall outcome. There are other steps in this process, including (very critically) analysis of the degree to which ones conclusions are sensitive to small changes in priorities.There’s lots more that can be said about other disciplines as well.

People who do decision analysis for mission-critical military and other systems are often members of INFORMS and (for military apps) MORS. “

MY COMMENTARY:

That was quite timely. These computer modelling techniques will also be helpful in drawing a clearer line between intelligence analysis and policy decision-making. Currently the border between the two domains tends to get fuzzed over as IC analysts and 1st-4th tier intelligence consumers often tend to rely upon similar mental ” tools” for looking at data. In fact, some policy appointees have been, by training, world-class analysts in their own right. There really wasn’t a whole lot the CIA was going to give George Schultz or Lawrence Summers, in terms of economic forecasts, that either man could not see on their own, without benefit of using a series of computer models to run scenarios as Robin suggested above.

UPDATE: A Pundita reader who is a decision analyst develops Robin’s explanation further.

WINNER OF THE PUNDITA PRIZE !

Zenpundit has been honored as a winner of the Pundita Prize for recent posts on Russia! I thank Pundita for the award and pledge a continuing series on U.S.-Russian relations in the very near future. On a related note, I will also be doing a more limited, but unusually colorful, series of posts on the dynamics of Horizontal and Vertical cognition for those aficinados of PNM Theory, so there may be less news of the day type posting this week unless the MSM offers up stories that are germane to one of these topics.

More to come…….

DARPA TRYING TO VACUUM THE BLOGOSPHERE

Arnaud de Borchgrave reports that DARPA has been tasked by the IC with running the blogosphere through a fine-tooth comb in order to look for signs of terrorist communications and open source intelligence.

This raises the possibility that if you want to really inject your ideas into the USG hopper, don’t write your Congressman, just post using as many sensitive keyword combinations as possible so that you will be red-flagged by the NSA system or some other agency’s for actual human attention by an analyst. If you know enough about foreign policy or intelligence to create a
” hook” for a supercomputer, then you probably know enough to write something an intel guy would find interesting too.

THE NEW GREAT GAME

Sir Ignatius Valentine Chirol, the newest member of Coming Anarchy , has begun a series on the potentialities of Turkic Central Asia entitled The Eastern Question Part I. and Part II. In Part II. Chirol noted:

“To begin, it would be helpful to consider the unofficial border between the West and the East. The modern border between Croatia and Bosnia was long the frontier of Europe, separating Austria-Hungary from the Ottomans and also Christianity from Islam. Later after World War II, the line was pushed back to West Germany, Austria and Italy separating not culture and religion, but two ideologies. Today, in 2005, the border extends from Estonia almost directly south past Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia, a significant shift. And while overlapping EU members with NATO members creates the de facto border, it is a very porous one these days in terms of cultural and economic influence.”

An timely observation. In the comments of section of Part I. at Coming Anarchy, I drew attention to the following possible dichotomy for Central Asia, Turkey and the West:

“An interesting set of questions will be if Turkey can maintain its adherence to secularism or will grow more Islamist. Secondly if Turkish involvement will lead to a revival of “Pan-Turkism” and investment in the Turkish identity among the Turks or if a ” Pan-Turanism” is established that makes Turkey a synthesizing transmission belt of European and Western ideas to their cousins further East.”

I’m less confident that Turkey’s Westernization and secularism established by Ataturk can completely avoid being eroded by creeping Islamism as the Turkish military recededs politically in favor of democratization. Particularly if Turkey, after jumping through a series of pride-injuring hoops, ends up being rebuffed for EU membership. I forsee a very, very, bad popular reaction in Turkey if that eventuallity should come to pass. It would be helpful, if the U.S. took some complementary moves to strengthen Turkey’s identification as a member of the Core rather than leave the question entirely in the laps of the Europeans.

As for Central Asia there are six and soon to be seven or eight powers competing for influence in the next quarter century: Russia fearfully watching its ” near abroad”; Turkey; Iran reaching toward Shiites and Dari-speakers; Saudi Arabia proselytizing Salafism in Sufi territory; the United States, seeking GWOT bases and oil and gas deals and the EU, seeking to expand the EU values model eastward. With their energy requirements, China and India will soon join in, jockeying for influence as well. That’s a large number of 800 pound gorillas in a relatively small playground.

The United States needs to leverage a combination of players with congruent minimum goals in Central Asia that emphasize connectivity – a non-zero sum outcome for the West, Russia and China that shuts out Islamism and spurs liberalization, stability and markets.

ADDENDUM: Zenpundit wishes to welcome Coming Anarchy’s newest partner, Sir Ignatius Valentine Chirol, to the blogosphere

MARC SCHULMAN

Has his next installment – The EU and the Arabs IV — War, Oil, EAD -up….with an intriguing trio of sources !