Two Quite Reasonable Observations

March 8th, 2008 by zen

Wiggins extends the conversation on RAND’s origins as an inspiration for today.

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Posted in 21st century, America, analytic, defense, fabius maximus, foreign policy, futurism, global guerillas, ideas, innovation, intellectuals, john robb, medici effect, military, military reform, national security, Opposed systems design, robb, theory, war | 8 comments

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  1. Opposed Systems Design :: A 21st Century Golden Age :: March :: 2008:

    March 8th, 2008 at 6:41 am

    […] by Mark’s stimulating prompt, some thoughts on the Golden Age of […]

  2. Wiggins:

    March 8th, 2008 at 6:42 am

    A very provocative post, Mark.  Started to comment here, then ended up just posting a response over at <a href="http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/">OSD</a&gt;.

  3. zen:

    March 8th, 2008 at 6:50 am

    We are slightly asynchronous tonight Wig. :o)

  4. judasnoose:

    March 8th, 2008 at 4:15 pm

    Right after 9/11, some scary spooks suggested doing a futures market to predict terrorism.  They might have done something worthwhile, and they might have just profiteered, but in any event the public story was that no one trusted them enough to let them do it, particularly not with taxpayer money.So … at minimum, the USA is about 6 years late to the party.

  5. Moon:

    March 8th, 2008 at 6:11 pm

    Proposed name for ringleader zenpundit’s "ur-RAND":
    .
    IDEM, both as an implied back-citation to something (RAND in this case); and as a contractronym:  Invert, Distribute, and EMerge (contemporary themes).  ;-\

  6. zen:

    March 9th, 2008 at 4:28 am

    Hi Judasnoose

    I may be wrong but I believe the IC eventually went ahead with prediction markets on the quiet once the furor died down.

    Hi Moon,

    Sounds good to me.

  7. Fabius Maximus:

    March 10th, 2008 at 11:56 am

    Part of our problem is that the necessary research involves working against our current DoD apparatus, and there is neither internal DOD nor outside institutional support for this today. Unlike RAND, where the USAF was certain to get some value for its money.
    .
    Another aspect of the problem is that everyone wants to do high-level research.  But what we need first imo is basic grunt-level research. Legions of grad students collecting information on the past century or so of 4GWs (however defined), on a systematic framework that allows comparisons.  With that then we will have a strong basis for analysis.   This is the kind of work that requires long-erm institutional support.
    .
    What we have now are individual craftsman doing fine work, but with scraps as raw material.

  8. Theories about 4GW are not yet like the Laws of Thermodynamics « Fabius Maximus:

    March 10th, 2008 at 12:08 pm

    […] “Two Quite Reasonable Observations“, posted at Zenpundit (8 March 2008) […]