“Socionomic” Futurism at Futurejacked
Flagg707 has a speculative post at Futurejacked that I think most readers hear will find stimulating and fun to read:
Socionomic Trendspotting for 2009
A Continued Surge in Magical Thinking
Socionomics posits that during waves of positive social mood, “practical thinking” is dominant over “magical thinking,” and a belief in science and reason dominates. During waves of negative social mood the magical thinking, with its distrust (if not hatred of) reason and science rises to a dominant position in the mass social “mind.”
My personal interpretation of this is that magical thinking actually begins to manifest during the fifth wave of a postive mood surge – where faith and hope outstrips a reasoned evaluation of the economic “fundamentals” and continues into the waves of negative mood. Either way, we can expect a lot of anti-science and anti-rationality types of behavior to explode in politics and in university settings. Hopefully it won’t go as negative as it did in Kampuchea, but we are dealing with a downturn of historic proportions, so keep in mind that herds of humans are capable of staying irrational for very, very long periods of time.
….Expect a Wave of Independence Movements
I thought this would be a more dominant theme during 2008 than it turned out to be, with only Kosovo shearing off from Serbia and, at the very end of the year, the Ruthenians declaring independence in Ukraine. As Abkhazia and Ossetia were already de facto independent from Georgia, I won’t count them. I doubt 2009 will be as calm.
Socionomics holds that during times of negative mood factionialism increases and the various “tribes” that make up a country turn towards their subgroup and away from the idea of an inclusive and tolerant society. This is the stuff of independence movements, of civil wars, of hollow states and of a return to primary loyalties.
Read the rest here.
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:00 am
Damn. Between that and Selil’s latest perhaps the survivalist methodology of the ’70’s and ’80’s is the one to adapt.
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:05 am
Zen, I’ve been checking out that site about "socionomics" that you linked. What do you feel about this "science." If its legit, shouldn’t these people be millionaires by now? Where do "blackswans" fit in with these various historical waves? And as a historian, what are you feelings regrading "waves" occurring in history anyway?
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
wrt Science -"Deep Simplicity" by John Gribbinhttp://www.amazon.com/Deep-Simplicity-Bringing-Order-Complexity/dp/140006256X"The Bottomless Well" by Huber and Millshttp://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy/dp/0465031161"Godel, Escher, Bach" by Hofstadterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gödel,_Escher,_Bach"Islands in the Clickstream" by Richard Thiemehttp://www.amazon.com/Islands-Clickstream-Reflections-Virtual-World/dp/1931836221
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Hi Seerov,
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I only heard about "Socionomics" no opinion yet except it is more perspective than theory in my view unless there’s a quant element in there someplace.
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Hi Gunnar,
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Much thanks – those are great recs! Noticed you joined twitter too !