Wikistrat: If Kim Jong-il Died…..
Wikistrat is running an interactive futurist simulation on possible pathways of change and regime change of the DPRK. I am participating alongside Thomas P.M. Barnett and HistoryGuy99 and the Wikistrat analytical team. Join us here.
Tom’s take:
New Simulation – The Death of King Jong-Il
…We have just launched our first open community simulation, where our analysts and subscribers explore a shock in the form of the sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Join our subscribers to engage in this live simulation, explore potential scenarios, aftershocks the various impacts of this event on countries’ interests. You can then play the Prime Minister and plan potential strategies for the United States, China, South Korea and many more.
Current ruler Kim Jong-Il turns 70 this year and is allegedly battling pancreatic cancer (very low five-year survival rate) and diabetes, as well as the obvious lingering effects of a stroke that occurred in 2008.
Starting in mid-2009 and culminating in a special party event in the fall of 2010, Kim positioned his under-30 third son, Kim Jong-Eun as his clear successor, although it is widely believed that Kim Jong-Il’s brother-in-law Chang Sung-Taek will play the role of regent for some indeterminate time.
North Korea’s recent military aggressiveness (e.g., ship sinking, artillery barrage of disputed island) suggests a determined effort to speedily credentialize Kim Jong-Eun among the military leadership that now controls much of the government, economy, and – most importantly – mineral exports to, and humanitarian aid from, patron China. Kim Jong-Il was publicly groomed as “founding father” Kim Il-Sung’s successor for roughly a decade-and-a-half, whereas Kim Jong-Eun will likely have had only a restricted public persona for 3-4 years at the time of his father’s death.
When Kim Il-Sung died in 1994, Kim Jong-Il nonetheless was unable to fully claim leadership status until three years had passed.
ADDENDUM:
Interesting article (Hat tip Col. Dave)
N.Korean Protesters Demand Food and Electricity
Small pockets of unrest are appearing in North Korea as the repressive regime staggers under international sanctions and the fallout from a botched currency reform, sources say. On Feb. 14, two days before leader Kim Jong-il’s birthday, scores of people in Jongju, Yongchon and Sonchon in North Pyongan Province caused a commotion, shouting, “Give us fire [electricity] and rice! “A North Korean source said people fashioned makeshift megaphones out of newspapers and shouted, “We can’t live! Give us fire! Give us rice!” “At first, there were only one or two people, but as time went by more and more came out of their houses and joined in the shouting,” the source added.
The State Security Department investigated this incident but failed to identify the people who started the commotion when they met with a wall of silence.
“When such an incident took place in the past, people used to report their neighbors to the security forces, but now they’re covering for each other,” the source said.
February 26th, 2011 at 6:13 pm
The most probable scenario is that global demand for Mao suits will plumet.
February 27th, 2011 at 3:03 am
Reference this comment: "When Kim Il-Sung died in 1994, Kim Jong-Il nonetheless was unable to fully claim leadership status until three years had passed."This comment illustrates the lack of understanding we have about the nature of the Kim Family Regime. The transition of power was begun in 1973 when Kim Il Sung place Kim Jong Il as head of the Organization and Guidance Department. This allowed him to consolidate his power and purge his opposition so that when Kim Il Sung died in 1994 he was fully in power. Just because he did not appear to assume the visible trappings of power that we take for granted does not mean that he was not in full control of the regime.
February 27th, 2011 at 4:23 am
Hi Dave,
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So, what do you think about the part of Chang Sung-Taek?
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Speaking of guiding organs, when Brezhnev was ailing in his long decline, his brother-in-law General Semyon Tsvigun held the powerful post of First Deputy Chairman of the KGB and was a key figure in Brezhnev’s political mafia that stretched from his personal secretariat to military industry to department of administrative organs, when Tsvigun abruptly "committed suicide" in, 1982. Possibly with some help.
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http://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/21/obituaries/semyon-k-tsvigun-of-the-kgb-dies.html
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Is Chang a Tsvigun-like figure who the non-Kim family members of the North Korean leadership would to remove or neutralize?
February 27th, 2011 at 11:57 pm
Remember that Chang Song Taek is married to Kim Jong Il’s sister and both were recently promoted to General. Chang has been characterized as a "regent" for Kim Jong Un. As you may know Chang was "purged" a few years ago but then "rehabilitated." He and his may very well be key to holding things together if Kim Jong Il dies suddenly. But according to a friend of mine (a defector) who worked for Chang for years, there is not much support for dynastic succession among the elite but there is also no alternative either. The elite wants to maintain their status and the only is for the dynastic succession to occur because there are no real factions (due to the security system weeding them out and purging anyone with even a hint of disloyalty to the Kim family regime). My defector friend that people at all levels are "politically and psychologically paralyzed" and thus the only way ahead is for dynastic succession. If the succession fails then there will likely be chaos and civil war with power being diffused among the security forces and those generals who use their military power to try to protect their own security and status (e.g., "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun")
February 28th, 2011 at 3:53 am
"If the succession fails then there will likely be chaos and civil war with power being diffused among the security forces and those generals who use their military power to try to protect their own security and status "
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That will be ugly. Really ugly.
February 28th, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Dave, is there a chance that the actual power has already been handed over? It would have been a shame to waste the near WWIII in Dec. and the events leading up to Dec., on just some kind of miss-understanding. These N&S boys have been gaming for a long time, I find it hard to believe they would waste a good one.