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Binoculars on the Middle East

[ by Charles Cameron — current assessments — Iran trumps Saudi, AQ beats IS ]
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SPEC who is winning

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Sources:

  • Cambanis in Foreign Policy, Iran Is Winning the War for Dominance of the Middle East
  • Gartenstein-Ross & Moreng in Politico, Al Qaeda Is Beating the Islamic State\

  • Both are worth reading.

    • This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 15th, 2015 at 5:30 pm and is filed under al qaida, Charles Cameron, daveed gartenstein-ross, Doublequotes, foreign policy, iran, IS, saudi arabia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

    4 Responses to “Binoculars on the Middle East”

    1. Grurray Says:
      April 15th, 2015 at 9:30 pm

      Here is the latest situation map
      https://pietervanostaeyen.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/2000px-syria8.png
      It’s time to implement a no fly zone to protect Kurdish gains and keep Assad out of al-Hasakah. There’s an air corridor from Damascus to the NE part of the country, and regime forces are supposedly airlifting in Hezbollah and other Shia militias.

    2. Charles Cameron Says:
      April 16th, 2015 at 1:13 am

      BTW:
      .

    3. larrydunbar Says:
      April 16th, 2015 at 3:17 am

      “It’s about *how* the groups are competing.”
      Exactly. What is your favorite form of the Caliphate, and will the Kurds be able to hold that position?
      Not likely, considering the Turks behind them in waiting.
      I don’t think, considering the reports of airlifts, that the Shia will either, if the options are either for the US to go big (just joking, the Republicans are not going to hand the resources over to the Democrats) or go dirty.
      If you think it was a mess when Bush went in, just wait for the Tea Party Republicans to get their feet under them, and with a Republican POTUS.

    4. Grurray Says:
      April 16th, 2015 at 9:23 pm

      Here’s the latest Kobani battle map:
      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCvWScTW0AAzn6P.jpg:large
      the pattern has been air strikes hitting ISIS formations with Kurds then advancing through breaches. Enemy pockets cut off from command & control then get encircled. There are some dead-enders holding out in the grain silos in the top left corner of the map, and they will hopefully soon get squeezed.
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      The Turks are a tricky subject, but the no fly zone would keep them out also. Remember they were bombing Kurds as recently as last fall, now they’re retreating in the wake of our quite effective air attacks.
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      Presumably, the next administration wouldn’t be as friendly to either Iran or Turkey as the current one. With an autonomous and friendly corridor stretching from Northern Mesopotamia to the Mediterranean coast, we have a lot more options.

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