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Archive for October, 2006

Thursday, October 12th, 2006

CREATIVITY, MASS CREATIVITY AND RESILIENCE

An interesting congruence of posts lately.

Steve DeAngelis of ERMB, who has been turning his insight to wider horizons on his blog, brought up the subject of “innovation”, a critical economic advantage of free market economies:

Scarcity, Innovation, & Resilience

“This summer, as oil prices looked like they were heading towards $80 per barrel, Stephen L. Sass, a professor of materials science and engineering at Cornell University, penned an interesting op-ed piece in the New York Times entitledScarcity, Mother of Invention[10 Aug 2006]. Sass wrote his article to calm the handwringers who see ahead of us a bleak and unhappy future….

….Sass then continued with a brief history lesson about how scarcity led to innovation.

Consider the transition from the use of bronze to iron in making tools and weapons, which occurred around the 12th century B.C. Early in the second millennium B.C., iron was known as the stuff of meteorites. It was rare and highly prized: if you wanted to give a gift to a pharaoh or a king you didn’t give a gold dagger but an iron one. But when the eastern Mediterranean fell short of tin from which to make bronze, a technological revolution occurred. Artisans learned to extract metallic iron from iron-rich materials by heating with charcoal (a process called smelting), which caused the price of iron to fall by a factor of 80,000 over 1200 years. The Iron Age had begun.

….The bottom line is that the very process of developing alternative sources of energy to replace fossil fuels may yield benefits beyond our imagining. “

Over at The Cooperation Blog, Howard Rheingold drew attention to the concept of ” Mass Creativity” in Charles Leadbeater’s upcoming book We Think:

“Immersive multi user computer games, such as Second Life, which depend on high levels of user participation and creativity are booming. Craigslist a self help approach to searching for jobs and other useful stuff is eating into the ad revenues of newspapers. Youth magazines such as Smash Hit have been overwhelmed by the rise of social networking sites such as MySpace and Bebo. What is going on? We-Think: the power of mass creativity is about what the rise of the likes of Wikipedia and Youtube, Linux and Craigslist means for the way we organise ourselves, not just in digital businesses but in schools and hospitals, cities and mainstream corporations. My argument is that these new forms of mass, creative collaboration announce the arrival of a society in which participation will be the key organising idea rather than consumption and work. People want to be players not just spectators, part of the action, not on the sidelines”

Creativity is an important aspect of resilience in the sense that when faced with a threat, deficit, setback, obstacle or stressor, a creative approach will increase the parameters of your options. Perhaps turning a serious crisis, as noted in Steve’s post, into an opportunity to secure a comparative advantage through innovation. There is considerable dispute among experts over the nature and biophysical process of creativity on an individual cognitive level. Organizations, however have always placed some value on creative talent and the premium for such abilities appears to be on the upswing.

Mass Creativity is acheived through an “open source” and interactive model of development that accelerates innovation ( thus enhancing resilience) by functioning as a creativity aggregator and meme distributor. The latter part should not be underestimated in terms of its economic importance. Insights are often generated by connection to out of field concepts that suggest analogies or parallels to vertically trained experts; this includes the use of descriptive metaphors to explain concepts that are still only partly-understood but are intuitively reasoned to be potentially viable areas of investigation. Distributing ideas on a wide-scale through an open-source model can yield wholly unrelated spin-offs that increase net economic activity and have large downstream effects.

Resilience is determined by the nature of your response.

Wednesday, October 11th, 2006

WHAT’S UP WITH BLOGROLLING ?

They appear to have been severely hacked.

Hope they recover soon. Not looking forward to having to code my giagantic blogroll into the template if they do not.

Wednesday, October 11th, 2006

HISTORICALLY RECOMMENDED READING

Some posts by or about historians or history. Most of them are, like myself, veterans of H-Diplo.

Bruce KeslerDemocracy Project Did France Cave to “Jewish Fundamentalists”?

My friend Bruce takes issue with a historian who uses her careful documentation of Nazi collaborationist crimes against Jews by Vichy officials to equate Israeli policies toward Palestinians with Nazism.

David KaiserHistory Unfolding Kissinger then and now

Kaiser and I have had many differences of opinion ( a situation I imagine will continue) but he is always an interesting read; moreover, his criticism of the evolution of the historical profession is spot on. Kaiser’s use of FRUS in this post demonstrates the strengths that professional historians can bring to blogging as a medium.

Judith Apter KlinghofferHNN -“The Geneva Conventions Are Dead

Controversial but logically correct. Geneva has been undermined by an international refusal to tolerate severe punishment of those, terrorists or rogue state officials, who habitually break its rules ( before people go berserk in the comment section: I think the Bush administration policy on illegal combatants is wrong. The captives should have been giving fairly speedy hearings to adjudicate their status; those who were not paroled immediately or granted POW status should have face a traditional court-martial or military tribunal modelled on Nuremburg and been tried for war crimes, with those found guilty being sentenced to death).

Ralph LukerCliopatriaKC Johnson, Blogger Extraordinaire

Agreed. KC has shown a demonstrated commitment to following the evidence wherever it leads as a historian, blogger and public intellectual.

That’s it.

Wednesday, October 11th, 2006

ON MY READING TABLE

Winning The War: Advanced Weapons, Strategies And Concepts For The Post-9/11 World
Colonel John B. Alexander

Global Brain
Howard Bloom

Still reading:

The Third Reich in Power
Richard J. Evans

Just ordered tonight:

Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency
Robert J. Bunker

I suppose it is too ambitious to promise to review all of these books, but I will commit to Global Brain ( which Dan of tdaxp has reviewed) and the Bunker book ( hat tip to John Robb). If I can muster the energy for the other two as well, fine.

Tuesday, October 10th, 2006

READER COMMENTARY ON 5GW

This must be short as I am multitasking my way to amusement while attenpting to do mindless administrivia, but there were some excellent bursts of feedback from the 5Gw discussion initiated by Tom and continued by John, myself, Dan, Curtis, Purpleslog and perhaps others (will check later and update).

From Phil:

“Yes. The contest over globalization is more than just about laying fiber optic cable, building power plants and adopting certain financial and political institutional structures, it is at a very fundamental level, about people’s attitudes, beliefs, identities and aspirations. Shrinking the Gap needs to be accompanied by an effort to export and foster the kinds of beliefs, attitudes, ideas etc. that are necessary to sustain a successfully connected society. As you mention, the foot soldiers of Islamic extremism are connected, but are suffering from status anxiety, alienation and loss or absence of a viable identity, etc. The fundamentalists swoop in and fill that vacuum with their ideology. The Long War will be won or lost in the minds of millions of people. So what ideas do we export to counter those of the extremists?

Well, a few days ago Tigerhawk posted a comment by a young Saudi blogger:

“Looking forward to the future, I wonder: do we dare to dream? I, for one, do. I dare. And I don’t have only one dream; I have many dreams actually: I want to live to see the day when this country becomes a real democracy with a fully elected parliament; when freedom of expression is guaranteed to all, and no one is afraid to speak his mind no more; when women have their full rights and stand on equal foot with men. This was to name a few. Call me a dreamer. Maybe I am. I know one thing for sure, however: change is coming. This country is changing, not as quickly as I wish maybe, but it is changing nevertheless. Probably I’m just a young lad who can’t wait for this to happen, but who can blame me? If it wasn’t for the young to push change then who would?”

This young Saudi dreamer, and many more like him around the Muslim world, is the antidote to Islamist extremism. His dream is the alternative to the Islamist’s Caliphate. What needs to happen is that he and his fellow dreamers throughout the Muslim world need to create the kinds of networks amongst each other that the Islamists have used so successfully. They need to share ideas, inspire and support each other, and just know that there are others out there who feel the same way. Any pro-Globalization campaign will have to include these kinds of networks. We also need to connect with them to disseminate ideas based on our experience. Development in a Box allows us to combine the aspirations of the dreamer with practical steps to achieving the dream.”

From Purpleslog:

“The strategic choice isn’t globalization or statism so much as globalization vs. anarchy – and even that failed state chaos contains a a corrupt strand of connectivity to the Core.”

I am not so sure about this. The third force out there is a sort of global-islamofication force that is different then anarchy or globalization as we think of it in the West. Imagine a PNM theory variant for Global-islamafication that has it building connection among itself (the G-islam core) and the gap. There is a war of ideas that PNM theory does not seem to address directly or recognize.

The same shows up in Bobbit state evolution model that has the nation-state giving way to the market state (with 3 three variants). It is really giving way to a post-nationalism state. The postnat-state has as variations the globalization friendly market-state, the somewhat globalization friendly prosperous-autocracy-state. It also has the globalization unfriendly (global-islamoficiation friendly) Caliphate-state (note: I swiped the term from an old post of yours). The world of course will still have nation-state or partial-nation states for awhile (along with the odd state-nation like North Korea).”

ADDENDUM:

Blogospheric 5GW, with short comments” –tdaxp

Lots of Fifth Generation Warfare Posting– Purpleslog

More later…..

UPDATE:

Developing a Strategy for Fifth Generation Warfare” – Mitchell Langbert


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