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HAMMES ON 5GW

Colonel Thomas X. Hammes, author of the critically acclaimed The Sling and The Stone, opines on the nature of 5GW at DNI.

” Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges ” (PDF)

After surveying the evolution of 4GW, Hammes errs on the side of caution while speculating on the possible form that 5GW might take. Like John Robb, Hammes sees the potential for superempowered groups motivated by primary loyalties; as with Fred Ikle, the proliferation of potentially deadly dual-use technologies figures significantly. Like Chet Richards and Peter Singer, Hammes is interested in the growing role of PMCs.

In terms of alternative defense thought, Hammes has put up a solid, consensus-building, article. I think however, we may be reaching the stage where we need to try and envision the unexpected, in terms of the evolution of 5GW. Extrapolating linear trajectories from current military practice has been a fertile field for 4GW theory and for visualizing 5GW . I worry however that we (“we” meaning broadly all those think and care about such matters) are unwisely crafting a box of expectations for ourselves. Narrowly framing our premises inevitably creates a lacuna of inattention to other variables.

Perhaps, we need to consider a stage of scenario exercises mixing military theorists with experts from radically different domains, perhaps alongside some horizontal thinking visionaries, futurists and science fiction writers

ADDENDUM:

*ARHERRING* has extended commentary on Hammes at Dreaming 5GW ( Thank you for the correction, Curtis. Apologies to Arherring for my mistake).

RECOMMENDED READING

A (mostly) dual post edition:

Top Billing!: Dan of tdaxp – “Brave New War, Part I: The Future of War is Now” and “Review of “Before the Dawn” by Nicholas Wade“

The Strategist – ““Suppose we were an influence?” and “Do We Need Leaders Who Are Sunny Optimists?“

Simulated Laughter – “Fever Dream” and “Media As “Threat”

Rough Type – “The YouTube elite” and “Stabbing Polonius“

Done With Mirrors – “Do Us A Favor And Quit Already” and “After Iraq: Kurdish Option“

Soob – “Reflections on a Brave New World“

Recommended Viewing:

Conversations with History, featuring Andrew J. Bacevich

(I’m not frequently in agreement with Bacevich but he’s an influencer)

LONG LIVE THE KING

Outstanding performance by Forrest Whittaker in his interpretation of the devious, charming, sociopathic, brutally murderous General Idi Amin Dada’s descent into paranoia and state terror.

ENGINEERING RESILIENCE

This article is sensationalistic but useful, showing the effects of a small ” shoe bomb” on an airliner like the one used by bumbling malcontent and al Qaida adherent, convicted terrorist Richard Reid.

I am no engineer or pilot, so I’m willing to be corrected by those with expertise, but it occurs to me that a large part of the problem is that our passenger aircraft have deliberately been designed to be unsurvivable, because this saves pennies on the dollar, rather than to be resilient. Planes are not always by nature fragile; B-24’s during WWII or the more modern A-10’s could take devastating hits and remain airborne.

Much like not highjacker-proofing the doors of the cabin to protect the pilots, I suspect there are many known elements that could be engineered into passenger aircraft design that corporate executives and FAA officials intentionally choose not to require. Then there measures yet undiscovered, some possibly inexpensive or cost-reducing, that we will not find until we try.

I’m not advocating flying around in Abrams tanks with wings but in putting a greater effort toward thinking in terms of resilience when we sit down at drawing boards, instead of lamenting what was not done, after the fact.

POWER LAWS AND SOCIETY ON THE EDGE

A must read post by John Hagel.