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Archive for July, 2007

Wednesday, July 4th, 2007

BRIEF MUSINGS

I’m preparing to leave town on another trip and find myself overstretched in terms of time but I have to note that Kent’s Imperative had some intriguing posts up ( hat tip to Michael Tanji) , about which I’d like to offer a few comments:

Life at Google from an outside perspective

Aside from seeing how uber-techies live and making me nostalgic about past years of reading defector-dissident Soviet bloc lit, I’d like to highlight this passage regarding a KI suggestion to the IC for personnel reform:

“A chance for line level workers to do the kind of intel they want to do (versus the latest crisis they have been thrown into), at least part of the time? Or to contribute to the literature of intelligence? (Modeled along Google’s 20% time.)”

My unqualified guess is that this would increase the productivity and prescience of the IC by roughly the same proportion that expanding private farming helped the Chinese economy under Deng Xiaoping. People typically generate their most valuable insights about those subjects which they are both curious as well as passionate – i.e. earlier in the learning curve than the status of graybeard authority ( once you think you know everything, you tend to stop learning).

The bar to doing this is not a manpower shortage but a middle-management fear of subordinate autonomy. Forcing a talented subordinate to do irrelevant busywork confirms a manager’s authority and power. Autonomous subordinates who do self-directed productive work tend to confirm the irrelevance of middle-management. Few managers have the psychological wherewithal to be adept facilitators, mentors or coaches of gifted employees as an efficient “management” outlook is an inimical perspective to generating creativity and sustaining ” unproductive” exploration.

Regional versus functional issue accounts

From a historian’s perspective, a cool post ( perhaps less interesting to others). Some historiography, lots of methodology. Money quote/conclusion:

As for our opinions on the great divide between the two kinds of houses, we find ourselves veterans of uniquely transnational issues, having been subject to every manner of surge and task force and working group and crisis cell, in the most unusual of niches. We prefer to see small, aggressive, ad-hoc structures comprised of both analysts and operators from a wide range of issues and regional desks with interests and equities in the same target which overlaps their accounts. Only then, by throwing everything against the wall in a structure short lived enough to avoid its own bureaucracy, and disconnected enough to be (at least partially) immune from the day to day politics within a given agency or office, have we found the kind of answers we sought regarding the great questions of process.

We strongly believe such radically unstable and short lived environments are most effective because they are the very manifestation of Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. It is certainly no way to create a sinecure, nor even to build a long term career path – but it is the best way we have found to generate new and innovative approaches and answers to hard target problems, and to the problems others have not yet begun to identify let alone address.”

Hear, Hear! Very strong agreement in a John Arqilla-esque vein.

It will happen but not until after several more disasters force that kind of transformation or an unusually bold and subtle visionary implements it on the quiet. There is far too much bureaucratic inertia because the vested interests prefer paralysis in which they hold the reins to successful action where they become recognized for the marginalized support staff they really are.

In my turn, if any KI gents happen upon this post, I suggest they look here. From this acorn of an idea, an oak will grow. Mark my words.

Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007

HISTORICAL PALEOCON-PESSIMISM

Colonel W. Patrick Lang, a former analyst on the Mideast and now a sharp character on the internet, recently put forward an excellent example of a genre of thinking I like to call the ” empire argument”. It is a school of thought, a critical one, that prevails on the paleoconservative Right and the anti-war Left, the the two variants use some markedly different assumptions in framing their argument but arrive at a similar conclusion.

Like the historian, Paul Schroeder, Lang eschews much of the hysterical, romanticized, rhetoric that typify the “American empire” writers and sticks to a much more thoughtful, realpolitik interpretation.

“Jefferson might not agree..” Peter Principle

“I’m afraid I have to side with Britannicus (and Livia, the murderous old hag) on this one. It is in the nature of things for republics, if successful enough, to evolve into empires. It is certainly unrealistic to expect a global superpower like the United States, with worldwide political and economic interests requiring the worldwide projection of military power, to remain one indefinitely. The framers, with their horror of standing armies and European militarism, would probably be surprised to learn it has lasted as long as it has, despite more than 60 years of permanent wartime moblization.

There was a time (like the 1950s) when those who thought about such things could hope that the enormous powers of modern bureaucratic institutions — corporations, unions, the Pentagon, big media, the organs of state security — could and would be counterveiling, allowing a system designed for the less gargantuan 18th century to survive into the 21st. But instead those institutions are either in terminal decline (the unions) or are integrating and evolving into a more perfected form of imperial control and self-control. Meanwhile, dissent and opposition (terms that already sound almost archaic) are increasingly channeled to the essentially neutered arena of the fringe parties and the Internet.

I’m not sure how much mourning is called for here. Two hundred and thirty some years is a pretty good run, as constitutions go. The framers built well, but no structure lasts forever. We can pine for a lost republic (which, like it’s Roman predecessor, was never as golden as it appeared in hindsight) or we can accept reality and see what can be done to make our new empire more humane and rational than it is at the moment.”

I disagree, first of all that America has moved into an ” empire” state, though I would agree that aspects of our political system are working poorly and that our bipartisan elite are more timorous, self-centered and corrupt than we have seen in some time. That may be, in part, a generational effect of the current Boomer domination of government and the media and could pass as they move off center stage ( unwillingly, kicking and screaming, no doubt). We will have to wait and see if the Boomer legacy is an institutionalization of their cultural narcicism or a reaction against it.

I also do not believe that “imperial control” is the objective of the cultural shift away from hierarchies toward networked structures, as Lang alludes, so much as that globalization and information technology have made hierarchical modes of organization less efficient than in any time since the rise of the state and the industrial revolution. These are fundamental, global, structural and economic shifts that are going to occurr with or without regard to U.S. foreign policy decisions.

Lang however, still posits an interesting argument regarding the health of the republic. Is it remaining in form, while slowly ebbing in spirit like Rome did in the first century B.C. which was increasingly dominated by strong men, polarized politics and civil war ? I think Colonel Lang’s view is overly pessimistic and that the Roman analogy has to be taken in context with the very significant differences between the mindsets and culture of ancient Romans and modern Americans. We aren’t them. George W. Bush is no Caesar or Sulla much as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are not Cicero or Cato. Our times, Iraq included, are not nearly as bad as the troubles that ripped Roman society apart.

Monday, July 2nd, 2007

A VOICE OF REASON ON IMMIGRATION

One of my older blogospheric associates, TM Lutas had some sage observations on immigration:

“Assimilation is the process of “clearing the job queue”. The immigrants of today are tomorrows’ citizens most capable and most inclined to help out with assimilation because they’ve gone through the process. It’s not something you can really demand because this sort of thing is true charity work. Few people are actually paid to help others learn english, find a job, navigate the political, economic, and social system that is the USA. Most of the people who do it do so part time, often unconsciously.

The common sense outline of the solution for immigration is not too hard to figure out. You need to determine what the inflection points are, set immigration numbers that are above all the “too low” inflection points and below all the “too high” inflection points and make sure that your assimilation machinery works well so that you end up clearing the queue quickly and allow the next round in.

Now is anybody talking like this? I haven’t found any and thus my disgust with the present debate. I haven’t found anybody who’s properly defined assimilation in all its political, economic, and social glory in a way that everybody can agree on. I haven’t found anybody doing the hard work to identify all the relevant inflection points so that we can identify a safe range of immigration where we can set numbers without getting this country into trouble.

Instead, what I find are posturing and falsity up and down the entire range of mainstream debate. Restrictionists don’t want to look to closely at our ability to absorb new immigrants because they’re afraid that the numbers are going to be higher than they’d like to satisfy their interests. The free borders crowd doesn’t want to look at assimilation either. The multiculturalists don’t believe in assimilation at all while others in that camp are too afraid that the numbers will come out as being too low to further their interests.”

Check out the questions that should be asked.

Dan of tdaxp emphatically agrees.

Sunday, July 1st, 2007

BELATED RESPONSE: “8 RANDOM FACTS MEME” GAME

Nonpartisan at ProgressiveHistorians deigned to tag me with this viral post while I was away. Here are the rules:

Players start with 8 random facts about themselves.

Those who are tagged should post these rules and their 8 random facts.

Players should tag 8 other people and notify them they have been tagged

Now for the random facts regarding me:

8. I’ll drive many extra miles for a good Italian beef sandwich with hot peppers.

7. I’m a crack shot with a rifle; pretty fair with a pistol. Poor with a shotgun.

6. My first car as a teenager – a 1979 Chrysler Cordoba with ” real Corinthian leather” – had an engine that sporadically caught fire. Red tape served as a brake light cover.

5. I now have two dogs after long vowing to never have any. One of them is a furry jerk, but my Firstborn loves the dog, so we’ve kept it.

4. I once had a conversation with William Rehnquist about the French Revolution.

3. Came close to meeting Mikhail Gorbachev once but too many people were milling about. He’s shorter than you expect.

2. You know that line that runs across the width of your palm ? The one that fortune tellers read? I ripped that open back in college while deadlifting 500 lbs for the first time.

1. I sing like a cross between a tomcat and a dying whale.

I officially tag the following bloggers:

CKR
Younghusband
Dave
eerie
Lexington Green
Subadei
Kobayashi Maru
Dr. Dan

Good luck!

Sunday, July 1st, 2007

RECOMMENDED READING

Curzon has a neat two-parter up, “Failed States, Part 1:Best And Worst “and” Part 2:How Instability Spreads“.

Steve DeAngelis expands on the innovation/creativity thread ( I’m falling behind!!!) with “The Medici Effect and New Design

At TCS, James H. Joyner, Jr interviews John Robb about Brave New War .

Complexity and Social Networks Blog offers two good ones, “Social-network sites give businesses ideas for new collaboration” and “Bits, Bullets, and the Modern State“.

Dr. Frans Osinga at DNI – “On Boyd, Bin Laden, and Fourth Generation Warfare as String Theory” (PDF). The good Colonel Osinga is a serious contender for the ultimate mil theory championship with that title.

Scientific American on the neuroscience of irrational economic decision-making and “The Roots Of Punishment“.

Kent’s Imperative on “Politicization and the leak culture“.

That’s it!


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