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Hmmm…let’s see how I did. Here’s my post from January 2005:

1. “Increasingly desperate and frustrated at his inability to maintain command and control over al Qaida cells and his political relevance, Osama bin Laden will abandon some of his trademark patience and preference for apocalypric terrorism. Bin Laden will begin taking greater personal risks and authorize larger numbers of smaller-scale attacks in order to maintain his personal preeminence and to prevent Zarqawri from emerging as his successor. Chances of a ” break ” happening to capture or kill Bin Laden will be increased.”

Well, we stand no closer to catching Bin Laden today than a year ago. Zarqawi is the annoited
“emir” of al Qaida Iraq but al Qaida has not, by accident or design managed any apocalyptic actions of terror on the scale of 9/11.


2. “The United States will eventually adopt a ” controlled civil war” strategy in Iraq to contain the disorder of the Sunni Triangle by actively building up Kurdish Peshmerga and Shiite militias to complement the emerging forces of the central government and U.S. military personnel. The goal for the former forces would be increased stabilization and presence of their home areas to ” ratchet down” the insurgency’s geographic area of operation. Sunnis will face a Hobbesian choice of turning to the central government for protection or taking their chances in territory controlled by an insurgency that will be turning on Sunni civilian ” collaborators” with increasing ferocity under the ghoulish influence of Zarqawri and brutal ex-Baathist commanders. If this strategy succeeds, terror in Iraq may decline to Baader-Meinhoff/Red Brigade/IRA heyday levels or the Sunni triangle may become ” Little Algeria “, reminiscent of the democidal civil war between the GIA and the Algerian government. If the strategy fails completely, a full scale civil war could erupt out of the control of American military forces.”

I called this one – we just haven’t reached the endgame yet.


3. “Domestically, the Bush administration will heavily favor minorities and women in their high profile political and judicial appointments to neutralize expected Democratic attempts to play the race and abortion cards. Karl Rove will be looking to cement a structural realignment in American politics via ” peeling off ” the critical percentages of minority and women voters that Democrats need in competitive districts and states to win elections. Administration policy proposals will be in line with this strategy. Assuming Condi Rice gets the Senate’s nod for Secretary of State she will be one of a handful of people the Bush administration will be ” grooming” for 2008.”

I’d say I did well with women – Rice, Spellings (Sec. of Education), Huges, Miers – though the latter nomination proved to be a debacle it certainly bore the Roveian signature to divide Senate Democrats. Alberto Gonzales and Carlos Gutierrez ( Sec. of Commerce) were high profile appointments aimed at the Hispanic community. The previous effort, so visible in Bush’s first term, to court African-Americans via high-profile appointments has been limited to Condi Rice, albeit at the most prestigious cabinet post. So, I was corect in emphasis but not intensity with minorities.


4. “The Bush administration will surprise the world by offering Iran ” a grand bargain” on relatively generous terms which the clerical regime will ultimately reject, clinging to their hopes of a breakthrough in their nuclear weapons program. A joint American-Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is high as the Bush administration, unlike its predecessors, will not feel that the good opinion of the Arab-Islamic world or EU diplomats is worth the risk of letting Teheran in the nuclear club.”

The Iranian pot continues to simmer while the loose-cannon lunacy of ultrahardlineIranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes the prospect of a strategic ” grand bargain”, all but impossible. A military strike on Iran by the United States, Israel or both is a real possibility but has yet to occur.


Overall, not bad. About a .350 average as a prognosticator. I’ll take it.

Dave at The Glittering Eye evaluates his own ability as a seer and oracle.

One Response to “”

  1. collounsbury Says:

    Never understood the urge to make predictions, except with respect to Iraq. That was a good call, but an obvious one for all the but deluded.

    I’ll note that I think you’re over excited about Ahmedinejad, he is looney enough to put off even fellow hard liners. Only the positively deluded are with him, which I think, despite some of the shrieking among the looney Right in the US, are a small number.

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