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A paper from RAND assesses al Qaida’s parameters and potential.

Another question is – where is al Qaida ? The organization flourishes where it is indulged and feared by weak authorities or where there is no authority whatsoever. There are obvious locations where al Qaida is known to be active – Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, Gaza, the frontier Pathan provinces of Pakistan and Southern Afghanistan, most likely now Iraq and in Daghestan with the Chechen rebels. However, American intelligence is probably checking less obvious locations – the outlying rim of islands in Indonesia and the Philippines, FARC countrolled regions of Colombia, northern Nigeria and the No-Man’s land borders of Central Africa.

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