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HipBone implications of the second shoe dropping for intel analysis

Sunday, August 6th, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — also, the role of the True Name in intel analysis & Ursula Le Guin’s Earthsea ]
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You may know that I value the documentary film Manhunt for its lucid presentation of the process by which the finest intelligence analysts “leap” to their quarry — in which Cindy Storer notes, “not the analysts doing it, but other people who didn’t have that talent referred to it as magic”.

In my post The process of associative memory I decribe this process, which I consider the root process of true creativity:

There’s the present moment .. And there’s the memory it elicits.

Compare Michael Hayden in Manhunt, at 1.19.18:

The way it works is, information come in, you catalog it, your organize it – that little nugget there could sit fallow on your shelves for four or five years until something else comes in that’s suddenly very illuminating about something that you may have had for a very long period of time. That actually happened in the work we did to hunt for Osama bin Laden by trying to track his courier.

By way of confirmation, here is Robert Frost:

The artist must value himself as he snatches a thing from some previous order in time and space into a new order with not so much as a ligature clinging to it of the old place where it was organic.

And here’s Jeff Jones on piecing together puzzles —

Some pieces produce remarkable epiphanies. You grab the next piece, which appears to be just some chunk of grass – obviously no big deal. But wait … you discover this innocuous piece connects the windmill scene to the alligator scene! This innocent little new piece turned out to be the glue.

**

My point here is that the board in my “game” of DoubleQuotes provides a matrix for eliciting and annotating such leaps between fact and memory — that’s its purpose, and that’s why I believe the practice and “playing” of DoubleQuotes is, in itself, an ideal training for the analytic mind in that otherwise elusive aptitude which Ms Storer says seenms like magic to those who do not possess it..

I believe my DoubleQuotes would be an invaluable tool for analysts in training.

**

Note, however, that Jose Rodriguez, speaking immediately after Michael Hayden at 1.19.55, adds a reference to the “True Name” — accompanying screencaps included — something to which as a theologian I am naturally drawn:

It took years for the agency to recruit the human source that eventually gave us the true name. That’s why we were in the business the of condensing human intelligence because, in many cases, all these fancy gadgets and everything else won’t give you the information that you really need. A true name.

And we finally got his true name, which is whatever it is. Whatever. Arabic name, you know. But the true name – we were able to find out a lot about him. From then on, you know, the agency was able to do what it does so well. Track the guy and find him.

That too elicits memories, though in this case providing cultural context rather than actionable intelligence. It’s interesting to compare Rodriguez’ quote with the passages in which Ursula Le Guin describes the nature of magic in her book, Wizard of Earthsea:

He who would be Seamaster must know the true name of every drop of water in the sea.

and:

He saw that in this dusty and fathomless matter of learning the true name of every place, thing, and being, the power he wanted lay like a jewel at the bottom of a dry well. For magic consists in this, the true naming of a thing.

**

See also:

  • Gaming the Connections: from Sherlock H to Nada B
  • Jeff Jonas, Nada Bakos, Cindy Storer and Puzzles
  • FWIW, there’s an appendix on the central spiritual significance of remembrance of the True Name in Judaism (HaShem), Christianity (Jesus Prayer), Islam (dhikr), Hinduism (nama-rupa), Buddhism (nembutsu) etc at the back of Frithjof Schuon‘s little book, The Transcendent Unity of Religions.

    On which frankly mystical note, here’s a third para from Le Guin to carry you towards Lao Tzu‘s observation that “The name that can be named is not the eternal Name” —

    It is no secret. All power is one in source and end, I think. Years and distances, stars and candles, water and wind and wizardry, the craft in a man’s hand and the wisdom in a tree’s root: they all arise together. My name, and yours, and the true name of the sun, or a spring of water, or an unborn child, all are syllables of the great word that is very slowly spoken by the shining of the stars. There is no other power. No other name.

    Mind-blowing first paragraph, academic paper

    Saturday, August 5th, 2017

    [ by Charles Cameron — this motive for terror in Mumbai totally blindsided me ]
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    Young Ajmal Kasab, from the village of Faridkot in the Punjab, in Mumbai, now deceased

    **

    Consider this:

    Strapped to a gurney and visibly shaken by the bloodied bodies of his fellow terrorists strewn about, Mohammed Jamal Amir Kasab, aged twenty-one, begged his police interrogators to turn off their cameras. They refused, and Kasab’s recorded confession provided the world with a glimpse into the individual motivations of the young men behind the four days of attacks in Mumbai, India. Kasab explained that he “joined the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba only for money.”1 His was not solely an individual decision, however, and the money he earned from participating in the attacks was not intended to be discretionary income. According to Kasab, his father had urged him to join so that Kasab and his siblings could afford to marry.2 Kasab recounted that his father had told him that his participation would mean that the family would no longer be poor and that they would be able to pay the costs required to finalize a marriage contract. One of the police officers, seemingly ignoring Kasab’s response, pressed, “So you came here for jihad? Is that right?” Crying, Kasab asked, “What jihad?” Lashkar-e-Taiba deposited the promised money in his father’s account after the successful attack; for his participation, Kasab was hanged in 2012 by the Indian government. Whether his siblings were subsequently able to contract marriages as a result of the funds provided by Lashkar-e-Taiba remains unknown.

    The paper, by Valerie M. Hudson and Hilary Matfess, is published by MIT Press in International Security, Volume 42 Issue 1, Summer 2017, p.7-40 under the title, In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.

    How little we know, how little we suspect, how diverse the world is, how varied the motives at play, even in matters that we study and feel we’ve grasped.

    **

    The paragraph above stands as a fitting anecdotal confirmation of Will McCants:

    The disappoint stems from the desire to attribute the jihadist phenomenon to a single cause rather than to several causes that work in tandem to produce it. To my mind, the most salient are these: a religious heritage that lauds fighting abroad to establish states and to protect one’s fellow Muslims; ultraconservative religious ideas and networks exploited by militant recruiters; peer pressure (if you know someone involved, you’re more likely to get involved); fear of religious persecution; poor governance (not type of government); youth unemployment or underemployment in large cities; and civil war. All of these factors are more at play in the Arab world now than at any other time in recent memory, which is fueling a jihadist resurgence around the world.

    If anyone elevates one of those factors above the others to diagnose the problem, you can be certain the resulting prescription will not work. It may even backfire, leading to more jihadist recruitment, not less.

    Jenan Moussa on Yazidi slaves – interview with ISIS wife

    Friday, August 4th, 2017

    [ by Charles Cameron — another amazing twitter thread collated for easier reading ]
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    When I was in Syria, ISIS women told me how Yazidi slaves had to endure virginity tests, rapes &jealous ISIS wives. Today marks 3yrs after horrible ISIS slaughter of Yazidis in Sinjar. At least 3100 male Yazidis killed, 7000+ women &children enslaved. Yazidis have testified about ISIS crimes extensively. But rarely have ISIS members spoken about topic of Yazidi slavery. That’s why during my stay in Syria I specifically asked captured ISIS wives to tell me their version of slavery stories. Very disturbing. I will now translate my interview with Lebanese ISIS wife on slavery of Yazidis. You can see her interview in 1st tweet of this thread.

    When ISIS took Sinjar, all Yazidi men they found were killed. ISIS considers them real kuffar (unbelievers) so they had to be killed. The women, they were all gathered. They (ISIS) told the women: “Take off your clothes”. And then ISIS brought a doctor to inspect them. The ISIS doctor checked who is virgin and who is married. Because otherwise ISIS cannot know who is virgin and who is not a virgin. Upon inspection the doctor would say: ‘This is a virgin, this not.’ ISIS then separated the virgins from the none virgins. They also collected the none adult males (they call them abeed or male slaves) and they separated them into a different group too. Many ISIS soldiers participated in the Sinjar battle and afterwards every fighter got a sabiya (female Yazidi slave) as a gift. All soldiers were happy to get female slaves, because they could have sex with them. Slave owners offered own slaves to their friends. Each day a different friend slept with slave. Sometimes they slept with slave from back (anal intercourse). It’s forbidden in Islam. They end up taking slaves 2hospital because they got injured from way they had sex with them. Some of slaves were really young in age. When they sleep with the young girls, they start bleeding, so ISIS fighters sometimes would take them to the hospital for treatment. When it reached al-Baghdadi how fighters were sleeping with slaves, he didnt accept that. This isn’t way to deal with slaves, he said. Baghdadi told ISIS fighters: Slave owners must do sharia/religious course. This course will teach you rules on how 2deal with slavery. After completion of sharia course, ISIS fighters kept slaves to themselves. And didn’t allow friends to have sex with their slaves. Also a new rule: If you want to sell your slave, you have 2wait until she passes 1 menstrual cycle before new owner can sleep with her. Later selling slaves became a business. ISIS fighter would buy a slave for $1000. Then he sells her for 3000 dollars to make profit. There was slave auctions. 1fighter said: “I want for my slave $10.000.” Others said: “No mine is better, she’s virgin,$20.000 for her!”

    I sat in shock listening to this emotionless ISIS wive. Then I asked if her own husband had a slave.

    My first husband, who was Lebanese, had a friend who owned a female (Yazidi) slave. He asked my husband’s help to sell his slave. My husband explained to him: There is a Telegram channel, it is called ‘Souk lil Sabaya’. All the fighters of ISIS are in this group. saw many pics on this telegram channel. ISIS puts pics of slave w/good clothes, makeup, showing her body to get best selling price. “ISIS fighters start bidding for slave. If she’s beautiful, high price. If she’s pretty &virgin VERY expensive. Some sold for $30.000. My husband was on that channel, selling &buying slaves. Friend of husband loved 2have slaves, always changing them, sleeping with them. If he wants to buy a slave, he not only wants to see pic, he will touch her body. He checks if it’s good for him, if her breasts OK… Some ISIS guys ask: We will not buy slave until we see it all, they have to undress. Others were okay with seeing only pic and buy. Some (ISIS fighters) would say: I want to see her naked, why should I get cheated and get a bad quality slave? In Raqqa there was market for slaves. I can’t remember which day. When it’s slave market, it gets so crowded esp Saudi ISIS fighters. ISIS fighters start fighting in market over slaves. And when they take slave home, their wives fight with them bcz they feel jealous. Some ISIS fighters would treat their female slaves better than their own wives. He will buy for the slave make-up &nice clothes. Some (ISIS) fighters will basically treat their slave good for personal reasons because he wants to sleep with her. Others would treat their slave good because they want to sell the slave and you get more money when the slave looks good. It’s just like when you are selling a car, you have to show the car in its best condition to get the best price. Same goes for slaves.

    My Lebanese husband, he did not mind having a slave. But he did not have enough money to buy one. My current Tunisian (ISIS) husband he did not want to have a slave. His friend gave him one slave as a gift, but he didn’t take her. My husband hates the issue of slaves. He said: I don’t accept it that woman I sleep with has slept with many different guys before. One time I saw (in Raqqa) a slave girl &she was crying very loud because every time they would sell her to a different fighter. I told her: I cant help you. Either convert to Islam, become Muslim or try to run away. If I help her, ISIS would arrest me or kill me.

    Above tweets are word-by-word translation of what ISIS wife told me. I interviewed another woman on same topic. Maybe I translate later. When u read my thread on ISIS slavery it’s shocking 2realize there’s no int mechanism to punish ISIS. No UN court. Many ISIS walk free.

    Anyhow, this was a long thread. Hope it was helpful. Thank you all for your attention.

    McMaster? McDhimmi? McSlave?

    Thursday, August 3rd, 2017

    [by Charles Cameron — whereof scholars are in disagreement, how shall generals, presidents, you, or for that matter i, be expected to get things right? ]
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    Oh, wow:

    Nah!

    **

    Is Westboro Baptist Church a Baptist Church?

    Is Westboro Baptist even Christian? Is the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Islamic? Islamist? Heresy? Specoifically, Khawarij?

    Surely there are senses in which the answers, both with regards to WBC and ISIS, are Yes, and senses in which the answers are No. To my way of thinking, the question of ISIS and Islam has a great deal to do with what audience a given speaker wishes to reach — and what second order consequences that speaker wishes to avoid.

    **

    But Khawarij, specifically?

    The site Millat Salaf [“Path of the Predecessors”] asks, ISIS are Khawarij or not?

    So who are the Khawarij? What are their beliefs? Are they Kuffar? Should they be killed? When should they be fought? We must compare the methodology and beliefs of the ISIS before slapping the title “Khawarij” to their backs and going all Shariah on ’em.

    Millat Salaf goes on to note some of the beliefs of the Khawarij of the time of the Prophet — jhere are three of a dozen examples:

    They Permit the Greater Khilaafah to be a man from other than Quraish, free man or a slave, arab or a non-arab, and other groups from within them do not see having a Khilaafah as important at all, rather the people should sort out their affairs for themselves, and if they feel the need for an Imaam they may choose one.

    They Abolish the ruling of stoning of the adulterer.

    Some of them deny Surat Yusuf saying that it is not befitting to have a love story in the Quran.

    On the basis of these and other significant details, and comparing them with ISIS doctrine and practice, Millat Salaf declares that the members of ISIS are not Khawarij.

    On a more general level, however, Millat Salaf described the Khawarij as both a contemporary and an end-times group:

    The Prophet (peace be upon him) said “Leave him, for he has companions, and if you compare your prayers with their prayers and your fasting with theirs, you will look down upon your prayers and fasting, in comparison to theirs. A people will come at the end of time; as if he is one of them, reciting the Qur’an without it passing beyond their throats. They will go through Islam just as the arrow goes through the target. Their distinction will be shaving. They will not cease to appear until the last of them comes with Al-Maseeh Ad-Dajjaal.” Bukhari (and An-Nisaa’i with different wording)

    In these terms, the Khawarij are more ostensiveloy (ostentatiously) pious than other Muslims, but their practice is hollow.

    So.. I mean..

    It is perfectly possible, from within the Salafi stream of Islam, to suggest as Millat Salaf does:

    we cannot agree with the claims of the FSA and their allies that the ISIS are Khawaarij

    It is also perfectly possible within that same Salafi stream to hold, as Sheikh Abu Basir al-Tartusi does, that ISIS is Khawarij and worse. From a page titled Conclusive scholarly opinions on ISIS:

    The group known as ISIS are from the fanatical Khaw?rij, rather they have surpassed the Khaw?rij in many of their characteristics and actions, combining between fanaticism, aggression, hostility and shedding inviolable blood.” He further said: “We call upon all sincere individuals who have been fooled by them while still with this misguided group to severe their ties with it and to declare their freedom from it and its actions.”

    **

    And what of Westboro Baptist from a Christian perspective? Christianity Today carried a piece titled The Westboro Baptist in All of Us, observing:

    It’s easy to distance ourselves from Westboro Baptist Church. They’re extremists with monstrous practices that flow from a twisted theology of a deceived people. We’re not extremists. We’d never dream of protesting the funerals of American soldiers or even conceive of picketing the funerals of Sandy Hook Elementary victims in the name of God while smugly declaring via Twitter that “God sent the shooter.” We’d never indoctrinate our children as they have and call it nurture. Between most of us and those at Westboro Baptist Church, there’s a great gulf fixed.

    But then..

    Most of us wouldn’t go to the same lengths as those at Westboro, but collectively, we have our own prejudices, rigid rules, regulations, and zealotries. These drive us to marginalize, cast aspersions upon and exclude others within our own churches, Christian organizations and institutions who so much as dare to differ, even slightly, from our own political or theological stances.

    **

    If Christianity is understood as the religion of love, then from a Christian perspective, WBC’s excessive and hate-fueled zeal distances them from the very Christianity they claim, and which in historical perspective gave rise to them. Mutatis mutandis, If Islam is understood as the religion of Peace, then from an Islamic perspective, ISIS’ excessive and hate-fueled zeal distances them from the very Islamic faith they claim, and which in historical perspective gave rise to them.

    **

    Unfortunate McMaster — caught in the crossfire between the theological snipers of Is and Isn’t.

    Humans serve humans, Muslims serve Hindus, humans serve humans

    Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017

    [ by Charles Cameron — reminders — from July ]
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    Humans:

    **

    The image above:

    Mosques Served Hindus With Open Arms In Gaya. Great, Right?

    It is the same country we are talking about where chants of intolerance had been, since a few months, at its apex, where communal disharmony had been a routine and where cows had driven on to kill another. It is true that good too blossoms amidst the bad. Intolerance does flip to tolerance. The bitter lips do better to spread love around. Likewise, the imams of mosques too lovingly served water to the heat-ridden Hindu pilgrims.

    Such news surfaces up to rekindle our lost faith in the unison of the two rival faiths.

    **

    The backstory of religious tolerance should not be forgotten:

    How a Hindu temple was renovated by a Muslim and a Sufi shrine revamped by a Sikh in Pakistan

    Today as thousands of devotees pay homage to the patron saint of Lahore every day, it is conveniently forgotten that a Sikh Maharani played a crucial role in the development of this shrine, just as the fact about a Muslim concubine of the Maharaja renovating a Hindu temple has faded from memory.

    **

    Sad that we need to be reminded:

    Muslims serving Hindu devotees during annual Kanwar Yatra: Communal harmony project-37

    The photograph on the left shows a Muslim man providing first-aid to a Hindu devotee, termed Kanwaria [Kanwariya]–youth taking the Kanwar.

    The other photograph shows Muslim men offering sherbet to the devotees passing by the town.

    [ CC note: I haven’t included the photos here on Zenpundit for reasons of space, but you can see them at the link]

    These photographs need to be published here because mainstream media doesn’t provide space to them and ignores such examples of communal harmony.

    During Muslim processions, Hindus offer sherbet at many places. And in case of Hindu processions, Muslim youths too offer their services. This is Indian culture.

    Unfortunately, we live in an era when even such gestures, that are common in towns, need to be photographed and shared.

    **

    A hero, plain and simple:

    Amarnath Yatra terror attack: Driver who saved pilgrims is a hero, the fact that he’s Muslim is irrelevant

    Sheikh Saleem Gafoor did what any decent human being would do. The 37-year-old bus driver saved those in his care and in the process, saved himself.

    Bullets are indiscriminate. They don’t choose their targets with care.

    Sheikh had the presence of mind to get out of there. He did that. He did not idly sit behind the wheel and think: These are a bunch of Hindus, so let them die.

    So, let’s not demean his actions by defining him by his religion. That’s patronising and presumptuous.

    It only underscores the sentiment that we, the majority are surprised that a Muslim would do this.

    **

    There’s clearly an extraordinary story to be told here:

    Muslims perform last rites of Hindu in Kashmir Valley

    It was seen that about 3,000 people belonging to two different communities gathered to perform the last rites of the Kashmiri Pandit. They not only participated in it but also took part in doing all the arrangements of the funeral. Rising above religious lines, Muslim people actively took part in the funeral of a Hindu. Be it may the making of flower garlands which are kept above the body or carrying it to the cremation pyre, Muslim community took part in each and every ritual. According to the relatives and neighbours of the late Tej Kishan, he was a great example of communal harmony as he decided to stay back in Kashmir Valley with his Muslim brethren during the tumultuous years of 90s, when all Pandits were leaving the region due to militancy. Thus, the effort of one man, who showed courage at that time when others decided to quit had served a long way in uniting people of different religious communities.


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