Shlok posts up on the future of war in response to Lexington’s Green’s prospective speaking engagement:
…..The history of warfare looks something like this cycle that repeats itself within the governance market – between an insurgent governance platform and the dominant platform of the time. Victory is gauged by market-share of each platform.
- Tribe vs. Tribe
- Tribe vs. State
- State vs State
- Marked by the invention of the nuke.
- Network vs State
- Where we are now. Networks are essentially information empowered tribes.
- Network vs. Network
- When the nation-state collapses into its component resilient communities and combats the networks that won.
- Insurgencies and private military corporations act as governance platforms.
- Small-Scale Networks vs Network
- Advanced information flows decreases mass requirements and increases decentralization.
- Trend continues until post-human age.
- Small-Scale Network vs Small-Scale Network
- Individual vs. Small-Scale Network
- Individual vs. Individual
- Post-human vs. Individual
- When the difference between man and machine is negligible.
- ? vs Post-Human
*Acceleration really takes off when the network barrier is broken.
I like the flow in the outline. Potential countervailing trends to Shlok’s model? Here’s a couple:
- Aggressive migration/refugees-in-arms – think Hutu militiamen fleeing to the Congo from Tutsi rebels, but scaled up for a failing great or regional power.
- Rogue nuclear events will cause a countervailing, centralizing, “circling the wagons” effect that will temporarily strengthen states and allow them to “take off the gloves” against networked opponents.