Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?

“…. But when the sons of these men received the same position of authority from their fathers-having had no experience of misfortunes, and none at all of civil equality and freedom of speech, but having been bred up from the first under the shadow of their fathers’ authority and lofty position-some of them gave themselves up with passion to avarice and unscrupulous love of money, others to drinking and the boundless debaucheries which accompanies it, and others to the violation of women or the forcible appropriation of boys; and so they turned an aristocracy into an oligarchy. But it was not long before they roused in the minds of the people the same feelings as before; and their fall therefore was very like the disaster which befell the tyrants.”-Polybius

One of the tenets of pop-centric COIN is that better governance will deliver the loyalty of the people who are the center of gravity over whom the insurgent and state contest. This usually means cajoling the state to reform and remove the worst abuses that serve to politically fuel the insurgency. Occasionally this is successful (El Salvador), frequently it is not (South Vietnam, Afghanistan) and in other cases it may be irrelevant as the method is eschewed in favor of indiscriminate brute force and punitive expeditions (Sri Lanka, Soviet COIN) but it begs the question of:

“What kind of governance is most likely to create insurgencies in the first place?”

Of insurgencies that are wholly indigenous, what form of government spawns them most frequently? A chart of historically recent insurgencies is given below containing who fought and who won (“negotiated” indicates a political settlemt “tie” of sorts, with some political accomodation and not settlements that are trucial “exit agreements” for the defeated belligerent): 

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COUNTRY

GOVERNMENT

VICTOR

Aden

Colonial

Insurgents

Afghanistan (1979-1989)

Communist/Occupied

Insurgents

Afghanistan (2001-2011)

Republic/Occupied

Ongoing

Algeria (1954-1962)

Colonial

Insurgents

Algeria (1991-2006)

Dictatorship

Government

Angola(1961-1975)

Colonial

Insurgents

Angola (1975-2002)

Communist

Negotiated

Bolivia

Dictatorship

Government

Britain (N. Ireland)

Democracy

Negotiated

Cambodia (1970-1975)

Dictatorship

Insurgents

Cambodia (!978-1991)

Communist/Occupied

Negotiated

Colombia

Democracy

Ongoing

Chechnya

Republic

Government

China (1911-1949)

Dictatorship

Insurgents

Cuba

Dictatorship

Insurgents

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