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Cascading effects of critical transitions

Monday, September 9th, 2019

[ by Charles Cameron — for Ali Minai and Mike Sellers, my complexity maven friends ]
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Complexity at intersections and overlaps.

My intuition catches this from memories of Carmel and Big Sur, and my general snese of waves crashing on waves –and with a little searching, I find my instinct beautifully expressed in this detail from Henrique Pinto‘s gorgeous Rocks & waves @ Big Sur #4, CA:

The approach from science-side delivers this:

The authors said their paper, published in the journal Science, highlights how overstressed and overlapping natural systems are combining to throw up a growing number of unwelcome surprises.

Unwelcome surprises, unanticipated consequences, unknown unknowns, what’s the odds?

From the article page:

Cascading effects of regime shifts

The potential for regime shifts and critical transitions in ecological and Earth systems, particularly in a changing climate, has received considerable attention. However, the possibility of interactions between such shifts is poorly understood. Rocha et al. used network analysis to explore whether critical transitions in ecosystems can be coupled with each other, even when far apart (see the Perspective by Scheffer and van Nes). They report different types of potential cascading effects, including domino effects and hidden feedbacks, that can be prevalent in different systems. Such cascading effects can couple the dynamics of regime shifts in distant places, which suggests that the interactions between transitions should be borne in mind in future forecasts.

I’ve been saying this, notably here, and thinking it for quite a while longer: in particular, I’d imagine a lot of waves of climate migration will founder on the rocks of nationalism and religion..

Best catch of the week

Monday, September 9th, 2019

[ by Charles Cameron — stunned — gun, whiskey, rattler — and a personal uranium stash? ]
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And the prize for best catch of the week goes to the Guthrie, Oklahoma PD cops who made a traffic stop for expired tags, found the vehicle was stolen, and discovered within it: a firearm, an open bottle of Kentucky Deluxe whiskey, a rattlesnake, and some powdered uranium.

Stephen Jennings was arrested for allegedly driving a stolen vehicle with rattlesnake and uranium inside.

It makes us wonder:

Jennings, of Logan County, told officers that he had the uranium because he recently purchased a Geiger counter to test metals, and the chemical element came with the purchase. He joked with officers that he was trying to create a “super snake,” Gibbs added. [ .. ]

The uranium did not result in charges because Jennings was in possession of a legal amount.

Stunning.

Cats as 16th century weapons, foxes as Old Testament precursors

Saturday, September 7th, 2019

[ by Charles Cameron — cat picture meets strategy, history meets scripture ]
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Here you go:

With thanks to @alabandine.

DoubleQuoting the “Good Samaritan at the Border” question

Friday, September 6th, 2019

[ by Charles Cameron — I may quote scripture here, but the question is not one of church vs state, but of morality vs legality ]
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On the question of giving water to the illegal thirsty, we are clearly split:

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The scripture I have in mind isn’t the tale of the Good Samaritan, relevant though that is. No, it’s the list of what have come to bve called the acts of corporal mercy, as formulated in the gospel of Matthew:

I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, I was naked and you clothed me, I was sick and you visited me, I was in prison and you came to me. .. Truly, I say to you, as you did it to one of the least of these my brethren, you did it to me.

The Good Samaritan instinctively acted on these commands, even though he lived only in the imagination of the man about whom the gospels would be written decades later. In that story, that morally compelling fiction, his action is contrasted with that of the priestly scholars of the law — and the lawyer who asked Christ the question which prompted that story is counseled by him to show mercy..

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Sources:

  • Tucson, Jury deadlocks 8-4 for acquittal
  • WaPo, Judge rejects good Samaritan defense
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    Morality vs legalism?

    At this point in human culture, is it even a question?

    Atwood DoubleQuoted

    Friday, September 6th, 2019

    [ by Charles Cameron — just alerting you to the sequel ]
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    Since my life these days is largely spent in bed or in my wheelchair, and since I don’t have access to my books,I’ve been working on a slew of book reviews. This is just to forewarn you that Margaret Atwood has a sequel to The Handmaid’s Tale coming out very soon:

    Amazon:

  • Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Margaret Atwood, The Testaments
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    While we’re at it, compare and contrast:

    The theoretical Calvinist theological underpinning of Atwood‘s tale would be:

  • RJ Rushdoony, The Institutes of Biblical Law
  • **

    And thanks, Gregory:

    !! Yes !!


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