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The Obama administration has been strikingly inept in the last few days in foreign policy, making a series of gaffes and counterproductive gestures that, had George W. Bush made them, would be igniting howls of anger and ridicule from the New York Times and the Left blogosphere. Now the crickets are chirping.

In a short span of time, the White House has managed to 1) embarrass visiting British Prime Minister Gordon Brown; 2) enrage Jerusalem by offering Gaza almost  $ 1 billion ( in return for….?) while HAMAS is still firing rockets at Israelis ;and 3) pull the rug out from under our NATO allies Poland and the Czech Republic with of a give-away-the-store offer to Moscow on missile defense, while pleading for help with Iran. A clumsy and premature gesture that President Medvedev treated with contempt and left Prague and Warsaw, which stuck their necks out in agreeing to host the missile systems, scrambling for diplomatic fig leaves. I wonder to what degree the Czechs and Poles had been consulted beforehand?  None of these actions appear to have been properly vetted and they left the new administration looking very green, slightly impulsive, indifferent toward America’s allies and fairly arrogant.

In fairness, almost every new administration makes first and second year blunders in foreign policy, most of which are completely forgettable in the long run. For example, as a student, an old professor of mine who was an eminent authority in Southeast Asian studies, once recounted to me LBJ giving ” the Johnson Treatment” to the King of Thailand, whose person is considered sacred to Thais and was, probably, in any event, unprepared for being put into a giant Texas bear hug.  Ronald Reagan did not give Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher prior notice of the invasion of Grenada and had initially waffled in the early days of the Falklands War. At other times, the early mistakes prove decisive, such as John F. Kennedy’s failure of nerve during the Bay of Pigs ( or alternatively, approving a cocked-up covert-op plan in the first place) which helped precipitate the later Cuban Missile Crisis.

The one bright spot in foreign policy was the unveiling of the Obama administration’s new National Security Council structure which seems to have been judiciciously considered with an eye toward improving interagency DIME integration in policy formation and enforcing real discipline in execution. On paper, it’s a very good plan with some important changes for improving the national security community’s performance.

Now they need to put it into practice.

President Obama’s biggest political headaches in the next four years will come not from Republicans or Rush Limbaugh but the cosmically egocentric and ideologically blinded Boomer  Watergate Baby cadre in the House Democrats.  

A global economic crisis and they seized an opportunity to pass an incoherent host of nickel and dime appropriations on their leftwing wish list along with huge giveaways to special interests that rival anything constructed by Bush-Paulson. They have managed to make an $ 800 billion dollar stimulus bill “non-stimulating”. That takes some doing to waste three quarters of a trillion dollars without anticipating any economic growth, even as spillover benefits, at a time of rising unemployment.

Is everything in this mega-bill bad ? No. Is it reasonable to expect Democrats not to pass some of their agenda items along the way ? No. What we have though is a bill apparently so embarrassing that Speaker Pelosi, who seems to be acting more and more like she is the uncrowned co-president, doesn’t even want her own members to have time to read it, much less Republicans or the general public. It is all dessert and no vegetables and it was the Democrats very first order of business.

The aging Watergate Babies, the Left-wing of the Left-wing of the Democratic Party, now in the drivers seat in the House of Representatives once “rolled” Jimmy Carter and helped destroy his presidency. They did the same to Bill Clinton in his first two years in office. They will hijack Obama’s administration agenda as well, or try to do so.

Given that the result of the first instance was the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and that of  the second was Newt Gingrich’s 1994 takeover, 2010 is suddenly looking a lot brighter for conservatives if they can manage to get their act together. Their opponents are gearing up for the overrerach of a lifetime.

For the 44th time in the history of our Republic, a sacred oath has been taken and history steps forward.

I have not been a supporter of President Obama but today is a day on which he is to be congratulated and welcomed as the new chief executive and commander-in-chief. His supporters will celebrate, as they well should as it is their time. Hopefully, in tackling the many problems the nation faces, the President will opt for the long view rather than the expedient one. Hopefully, the Republican leadership will use their position as the opposition party wisely in a way that limits the worst excesses of one party government to the benefit of our nation.

Good luck Mr. President, you will need it.

UPDATE:

In office for two hours, the new administration has begun blogging ( Hat tip Dr. Jay Rosen):

Change has come to WhiteHouse.gov

Welcome to the new WhiteHouse.gov. I’m Macon Phillips, the Director of New Media for the White House and one of the people who will be contributing to the blog.

Real change requires budgets, bureaucratic platforms and visionary leaders who can be both champion and evangelist. Having successfully lobbied for the retention of Secretary Gates, the small wars/COIN/military reform/strategic security community should capitalize on the logical political momentum and not be afraid to ask for the moon. This and many other things.

The United States and the world are at the kind of crystallizing flux point – where paradigm shifts have been recognized but the policy responses have not been decided – that comes once in a half century or more. Many things are fluid right now in different domains that were once regarded as certainties. Time to push while doors and minds are open.

People, like Secretary Gates, who “get it” need to be put in critical positions ASAP. Broadly speaking, what gets decided in the next 6 months may impact all of us for the next 60 years.

I think most people familiar with Illinois politics expected that eventually some kind of Chicago landmine was going to go off under President-elect Barack Obama – it’s just that few people expected it might happen before the 20th of January.

Likewise, I think most informed watchers expected that Governor Rod Blagojevich (D-IL), perhaps the most unpopular pol in Illinois history, would follow his predecessor, disgraced ex-governor George Ryan (R-IL) to prison someday, few of us anticipated the depths of the grotesque quality of Blagojevich’s grasping venality that would have made Alderman Tom Keane blush. Ryan at least didn’t talk like a thug when he raked in his small-time bribes ( have to wonder if Ryan’s chances for a presidential pardon just improved or gotten worse?).

The real political trouble for Obama can be read here in a post at “The Smoking Gun” regarding today’s indctment:

” ….Blagojevich, 51, and his chief of staff, John Harris, were arrested this morning on political corruption charges. While the affidavit does not specifically name the six prospective Senate candidates discussed by Blagojevic, Harris, and the governor’s aides, it appears that several are easily identified. “Senate Candidate 1” is Jarrett. “Senate Candidate 2” is Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Emil Jones, an Illinois state legislator, is “Senate Candidate 5.” And “Senate Candidate 6” appears to be J.P. Pritzker, a wealthy Chicago businessman. Additionally, Rahm Emanuel, the incoming White House chief of staff, is referred to in the affidavit as “President-elect Advisor.” (21 pages)”

Aside from Lisa Madigan, Attorney-General of Illinois and daughter of Springfield powerbroker Speaker Michael Madigan, this list is composed of Obama’s  Best Friend, Political Godfather, a campaign Mega-Donor and his future White House Chief of Staff. Holy Cats!

I think this is what some folks used to quaintly refer to as ” The Sleaze Factor“.