zenpundit.com » 2011 » January

Archive for January, 2011

Wikistrat Launch!

Monday, January 24th, 2011

Blogfriend Thomas P.M. Barnett’s partnership with Wikistrat, where he is Chief Analyst, to provide clients and subscribers with strategic advice and assessment of geopolitical affairs has had their official launch.

Exciting launch of our Wiki, coupled with a new CoreGap bulletin

Greetings from the Wikistrat Team,

Today we have launched the internet’s very first Global Strategic Model on a private and interactive wiki.

Join our subscribers and take advantage of the launch offer: a 50% discount off the regular price.  Sign up now before our regular prices return over the weekend. 

For a taste of what you’ll be getting, here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link to the abridged PDF version.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT

There is a link for a PDF download on Tom’s post of the latest CoreGap Bulletin that I could not embed here, so I encourage you to go there and check it out.

I have had some email convos with Wikistrat CEO Joel Zamel and can attest that Wikistrat has an energetic team and is determined to make a splash in terms of being an influencer of opinion makers and corporate movers and shakers.

The origami of War and Peace

Monday, January 24th, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]

It is brilliant. On the one hand, the folded-paper crane is a well-known symbol of peace:

On the other hand:

Even [Thai PM Shinawatra] Thaksin’s attempts at peace have been problematic. Last winter, he decided to launch a “peace bombing” to assuage the fury of the nation’s mostly Muslim southerners, who were enraged at the implementation of martial law and the growing rate of disappearances, reportedly by Thai Buddhist security forces. So Thaksin asked the Thai people to fold him an enormous flock of origami birds and then dropped more than 100 million paper cranes over the roughly 5,000 square miles along the Malay peninsula that make up Thailand’s deep south. Dropping the birds was intended to be a gesture of peace from the north to the impoverished south. But the Muslim population saw the “peace gesture” differently. “The Islamic understanding of dropping birds is battle,” Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anand, a political science professor at Bangkok’s Thammasat University told me. He pointed to Sura 105 of the Quran, “The Elephant,” in which God sends down “birds in flocks” upon his enemies to flatten them like blades of grass.

Eliza Griswold, Dispatches From Southern Thailand: From Separatism to Global Jihad

*

It was Graeme Dobell’s fine post today, The 2010 Madeleine Awards for diplomatic symbol, stunt or gesture, that clued me into Thaksin’s one hundred million symbols of peace, plummeting like bombs from the sky…

Perhaps We Can Call it “The Crony Capitalist Council”

Monday, January 24th, 2011

I was going to post on this subject but Dave beat me to it:

Theodore Vail’s America

….Among the greatest barriers to innovation are the industrial giants like GE which have shed jobs at an alarming rate over the last 30 years while wielding intellectual property laws and political clout to crush upstart competitors which are hiring. One way of spurring innovation would be to get dinosaurs like GE, grown huge through rent-seeking, the hell out of the way. I doubt we’ll see suggestions in that vein from Jeffrey Immelt.

The only jobs Immelt will create in America are for K Street lobbyists to secure yet more government contracts for GE. Expect a blizzard of proposed agency regs and executive orders this year as the Oligarchy tries to lock in as much of a permanent rentier economy as they can before the next election cycle.

Recommended Reading

Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

Top billing! The New York Times (Mark Mazetti)Former Spy With Agenda Operates a Private C.I.A.

WASHINGTON – Duane R. Clarridge parted company with the Central Intelligence Agency more than two decades ago, but from poolside at his home near San Diego, he still runs a network of spies.

Over the past two years, he has fielded operatives in the mountains of Pakistan and the desert badlands of Afghanistan. Since the United States military cut off his funding in May, he has relied on like-minded private donors to pay his agents to continue gathering information about militant fighters, Taliban leaders and the secrets of Kabul’s ruling class.

Hatching schemes that are something of a cross between a Graham Greene novel and Mad Magazine‘s “Spy vs. Spy,” Mr. Clarridge has sought to discredit Ahmed Wali Karzai, the Kandahar power broker who has long been on the C.I.A. payroll, and planned to set spies on his half brother, the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, in hopes of collecting beard trimmings or other DNA samples that might prove Mr. Clarridge’s suspicions that the Afghan leader was a heroin addict, associates say.

….”Sometimes, unfortunately, things have to be changed in a rather ugly way,” said Mr. Clarridge, his New England accent becoming more pronounced the angrier he became. “We’ll intervene whenever we decide it’s in our national security interests to intervene.”

“Get used to it, world,” he said. “We’re not going to put up with nonsense.”

Good.

Duane “Dewey” Clarridge’s talents as a CIA field operative were held in very high esteem by two CIA directors, Robert Gates and William Casey. It was Casey who put Clarridge, known as results oriented wild man, in charge of the Contra war against the Soviet proxy Sandinista regime in Nicaragua. Whatever Clarridge is up to in AfPak, he’s a walking, talking refutation of the politics and policies advanced by the Church-Pike committees against CIA covert operations in the 1970’s.  That Clarridge is active and running private networks in parallel to official IC ones – this model may or may not have originally been Casey’s brainchild BTW – must be driving some people inside the Beltway absolutely up the frigging wall.

The Times editors can’t be too pleased either, as this is at least the second time they have tried to draw national attention to Clarridge’s operation, having first gone after another ex-spook, Mike Furlong last fall.

Useless. Private intel networks, like PMCs are here to stay because of the geopolitical environment. The 21st century is their world.

Feng – Information DisseminationSome thoughts about the growing US/China rivalry

This is the key strategic issue of the decade, the Sino-American relationship.

FLAME ON! For those readers who lack the time to follow COIN inside baseball, here goes a quick summary…..

Paula Broadwell, a Petraeus-ite COINdinista doing her PhD at King’s College, had a guest post at Thomas Rick’s Best Defense entitled Travels with Paula (I): A time to build on the destruction of Tarok Kolache, a Taliban held village in Afghanistan by Combined Joint Task Force 1-320th under the command of LTC. David Flynn. Boadwell’s post caused the head of Josh Foust to explode and Josh responded en fuego at Registan.net with The Unforgivable Horror of Village Razing. Broadwell responded to Foust’s accusations on Facebook (!) – yes, it is getting weird now – prompting Josh to write Revisiting the Village Razing Policies of ISAF in Kandahar. That sat poorly with Andrew Exum, who had a joint post thingy with Josh at Abu Muqawama/CNAS-Registan called Exum and Foust on Tactics in Afghanistan, though not before arguing about it first on twitter. Meanwhile, Tom Ricks gave LTC. Flynn a chance to weigh in defense of his troops and himself A battalion commander responds to a blogger on how to operate in Afghanistan where he took the opportunity to label Foust an “orator”, which made me inclined to photoshop a picture of Josh’s head on to a statue of Cicero. Ricks gave Foust equal time with The battalion commander debates the blogger (II): Foust responds to Flynn and also at Registan, Josh added Responding to Lt. Col. Flynn.

Whew! I think that is where it stands now, though if anyone has links to posts from other COIN blogs, leave them in the comments and I will add the kibbitzers here later. I think we should acknowledge though that this may have been the first extended, acrimonious debate over COIN without being graced by the presence of Col. Gian Gentile. 🙂

 Dr. Thomas Rid – Kings of War The Origins of Counterinsurgency

Superb post. Highly recommended.

Jason Fritz – Inkspots Is a clear and equal enemy necessary to develop a valid grand strategy? and Grand enemies and grand strategy – Part II

Well worth the time to read. The first post spawned responses from Adam Elkus as well as myself, but Jason has called attention to a critical theme thast I wish was a topic of national discussion.

Dave Anderson, Steve Hynd – Newshoggers  On a progressive grand strategy and Progressive Grand Strategy And Nuremberg

I have to say that, while I do not agree with everything here, I think it is a good thing if progressives turn their attention to grand strategy, a subject they have generally avoided in past decades unless you can count being reflexively against whatever the US is doing as a “strategy”. Actually, this might be very interesting because it will split the Left camp between democratic progressives, who think what the US is doing is the problem and the hard, authoritarian, Left who think the existence of the US is a problem. I count Steve and Dave in the former camp BTW, though I think Steve, who is strongly anti-interventionist, is misreading Nuremburg in the context of International Law if he believes the only legitimate use of military force is self-defense in the face of an attack. That’s not the case.

John Hagel – The Edge Perspective Passion and Plasticity – The Neurobiology of Passion

I consider Hagel to be a “never miss, must read”. Hat tip to Scott Shipman

John Robb is   up to some very cool things.

That’s it!

ADDENDUM:

Clarridge is the story du jour. Also commenting:

SWJ BlogNewshoggers, The Agonist,

ADDENDUM II.

I forgot to include this riff by Joseph Fouche:

Tactics Are From Newton. Strategy Is From Heisenberg.

….Going into the Franco-Prussian War, Prussia was dominated by the almost Clausewitzian trinity of King Wilhelm of Prussia (primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force), Moltke (the play of chance and probability, within which the creative spirit is free to roam), and Chancellor Otto von Bismarck ([war’s] element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which makes it subject to pure reason). In fact, Old Wilhelm (more the people), Old Moltke (more the commander and his army), and the young whippersnapper Bismarck (more the government) are almost a 1 to 1 translation of the secondary trinity as well. Moltke’s philosophy of strategy reflected a role assigned by Clausewitz where the play of courage and talent enjoyed in the realm of probability and chance depended upon his particular character and the particular collective character of Prussian army. As such his strategy was a system of expedients that he systematically shifted as his carefully laid prewar plans collided with the French.

Bismarck had a similar notion of the role of chance in the realm of international politics even without the addition of other (usually violent means):

“Politics is the art of the possible.”

“Politics is not an exact science.”

But perhaps his most famous remark in this spirit was his statement that “A statesman…must wait until he hears the steps of God sounding through events, then leap up and grasp the hem of His garment.” Bismarck’s problem was that Moltke was also listening for the footsteps of God through history and Moltke thought those footsteps were heading towards Paris.

I think of Cordoba

Friday, January 21st, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]

1.

I think of how the Mezquita, once a mosque, must have looked when its whole floor was a single, arched space of prayer:

before Moorish Cordoba was conquered, and the conquerors built a cathedral in the very heart of the place:

like the petals of a flower opening inside the sepals, or a cancer sprouting within the body – for so much depends on your understanding of prayer.

2.

And I think how lovely it still looks, cathedral nestled within mosque under the snow, to this photographer’s eye:

3.

And I think of Seymour Hersh, who has drawn flak for comments in a recent speech about the Bush war in Iraq, and Obama’s continuation of Bush policies – and here’s the part that caught my eye:

“In the Cheney shop, the attitude was, ‘What’s this? What are they all worried about, the politicians and the press, they’re all worried about some looting? … Don’t they get it? We’re gonna change mosques into cathedrals. And when we get all the oil, nobody’s gonna give a damn.'”

“That’s the attitude,” he continued. “We’re gonna change mosques into cathedrals. That’s an attitude that pervades, I’m here to say, a large percentage of the Joint Special Operations Command.”

And I think then of the great cathedral of Hagia Sophia in Constantinople, that was conquered and became a mosque:

and is now a museum. So these things go, in times of war.

4.

As for the Mezquita, its history is more complex than I have suggested: it was first a pagan temple, then a Christian church, then shared between Muslims and Christians, then made into a mosque, then a church again – and the cathedral as we see it today was built during the Renaissance…

And I think at last how much depends on lofty spaces, and on silence, and on prayer:


Switch to our mobile site