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Archive for April, 2011

Wikistrat’s Syrian Scenario

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

 

From Thomas P.M. Barnett….

Syrian Regime Stability in Question – New Simulation at Wikistrat

….Wikistrat is launching yet another simulation in a series of collaborative simulations. Following the “Turkey’s Rise” and “Death of Kim Jong Il” simulations, we are now exploring the various scenarios, impacts and policy options given the sensitive situation in Syria.

Some of the questions we ask ourselves in this interactive experience are:

  • How will the protests expected unfold? What would be the Tipping Point?
  • What would be the implications of a failure to remove Assad from office?
  • How can this affect the Radical Axis (Iran, North Korea) vs. the Moderate Axis?
  • What does instability in Syria mean for Israel?
  • How should the US respond to the current events in Syria?
  • Should the Arab World stand by president Assad, or support the protesters?

If you are a topic expert on Syria and wish to participate, contact us here.

Scenarios Explored:

To begin with, 5 generic scenarios, looking at how the protests may unfold, were mapped and are being developed by the expert community. More scenarios will be added as the simulation grows. Each scenario is examined through its regional and global implications, the risks and opportunities it possesses and its assessed probability. Analysts then shift to checking how the events impact the interests of various powers (US, Israel, Iran, Lebanon and more), and what policy options these actors can adopt to tackle the developments in Syria.

Subscribe to Wikistrat and participate here.

Pantucci at Prospect: the glitter and the gold

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]

*

Prospect magazine just published Raffaello Pantucci‘s piece Jihadi MCs — which is about Omar Hammami and his jihadist rap songs, and more generally, the use of pop culture and tech in jihadist recruitment.

Culture as recruitment: that interests me a great deal.

*

I keep an eye out for Pantucci’s work. He’s an Associate Fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalisation, and one of the people who writes about contemporary jihadism with insight. I follow his tweets and mostly click through up on the links he suggests, and we’ve exchanged emails a couple of times. So I clicked through to the Prospect site and read his piece.

And because I’m a writer, I tried to imagine his audience. Who, for instance, is this intended for?

But it is Somali group al Shabaab (“The Youth”) that is at the forefront of this new media approach. Omar Hammami’s recent hip-hop release is merely the latest from the jihadi MC. In his earlier work “First Stop Addis” he rapped about his earnest desire to become a martyr, over shots of him and his “brothers” training and fighting in Somalia. Released through extremist websites, but also widely available on YouTube, the MTV-inspired videos and songs seek to show kids how cool it is to be a mujahedin. Other videos released by the group show young warriors from around the world speaking happily into the camera as they boast, sometimes in perfect English, of how much fun it is to be fighting against the “kuffar” (unbeliever) government in Somalia.

First, like every researcher worth his salt, I imagine Pantucci peers into these things to inform himself, to figure out significant currents in the world he lives in: he’s interested, he’s engaged. Second, it seems to me, he must be writing with an eye to his peers in the field of jihadist studies, to inform them of what he’s been able to piece together, to alert and inform those who are actively engaged in decision-making as part of the war of ideas, and perhaps to hammer some sense into the pundits who routinely misinform the public.

But on this occasion he has a third audience: he’s also addressing interested parts of the general public himself — in this case, the readers of a British magazine.

*

For most of his Prospect readers, this article will be informative background reading – but not, so to speak, “actionable intelligence”.

Let’s say that the “actionable” part of what he writes – more accurately, the analytic content – is the gold, and everything else is the glitter.

The general reader of a magazine like Prospect takes in the gold with the glitter, but in all probability wouldn’t get the gold at all if there was no glitter surrounding it. If Prospect had published Pantucci’s paper, The Tottenham Ayatollah and The Hook-Handed Cleric: An Examination of All Their Jihadi Children (it appeared in the academic journal, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism) or his more recent ICSR paper A Typology of Lone Wolves: Preliminary Analysis of Lone Islamist Terrorists, I somehow doubt the readers of Prospect would have been so keen to read them. They contain, if you will, too high a ratio of “gold” to “glitter”.

The glitter is there in his Prospect piece on Hammami, we might say, to catch and hold those readers’ attention. To, if you will, recruit their interest.

Nothing new or bad about that, we all write for different audiences, with different ratios of anecdote and statistic, fact and anecdote, humor and persuasion…

*

Here’s what interests me.

The “glitter” in Pantucci’s piece isn’t from Pantucci – it’s the glitter that the jihadists themselves are adding to the “gold” of their Islamist message.

So if you read Pantucci’s piece not just to inform yourself on a few new data points about al-Shabaab but in the relaxed mode of your average magazine reader, all the bits that seem like the neat “glitter” that make the article well-written and readable …

hip-hop .. rap .. socially networked revolution .. funky imagery and slang .. fanzine .. videos and songs .. how cool it is to be a mujahedin .. other non-traditional means .. dial-in conference calls .. how much fun it is to be fighting against the “kuffar” .. Facebook messages .. “‘Sup dawg. Bring yourself over here” to “M-town.”

… are also the specifics that al-Shabaab is using to recruit the attention of those who more or less idly surf YouTube and run across one of their videos…

The glitter is the gold.

In this case, I mean, the cool is the recruitment.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Update:

Of course, if the rap itself is uncool as rap, that’s not so cool after all…

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross @DaveedGR tweets: “Seriously, John Walker Lindh is a better rapper than Omar Hammami: http://bit.ly/ifoafQ” — and Adam Serwer @AdamSerwer: “The lyrics to Omar Hammami’s rap don’t do it justice. Dude just has absolutely no rhythm whatsoever.”

Dawg.

Somebody at DARPA is a Fan of Daniel Suarez

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

Freedom (TM) by Daniel Suarez

Remember those augmented reality glasses that the daemon operatives like Loki used to connect to the Darknet? Well, DARPA did…

DARPA Designing Augmented Reality Goggles to Fight Friendly Fire 
 

DARPA smart tech

Remember how the Beastmaster could see through the eyes of his pet eagle? DARPA does. And it’s pursuing augmented reality goggles tech that’ll let troops see through the eyes of a nearby unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in order to more accurately target its weapons.

The issue of accurate targeting and weapons-fire has a renewed interest in the wake of NATO mistakenly destroying rebel armor in Libya rather than Gadhaffi’s hardware, but it’s never been an easy task. One of the very best ways to deliver today’s smartest weapons is to have an “eyes-on” soldier in the field near the target relaying real time data up to the aircraft that’s about to drop a bomb–but this situation is not often practical or desirable and can be dangerous for both the soldier and the incoming aircraft.

vuzixgoggles

Read the rest here. 

Very cool. If John was not so busy with his new company, he probably could tell his readers how to combine this off-the-shelf modified tech with DIY drones.

An always fun thought experiment is to figure out how far ahead DARPA really is in the lab compared to whatever toy they feel comfortable giving a press release. And then there’s what exists on the drawing board that is technically feasible but not particularly economical at the present time to pursue seriously. Imagination usually far outstrips budgets

Working…..

Monday, April 11th, 2011

On an article TBA soon. Normal blogging will resume shortly….

Done. Heh.

Martyrologies and the Undead

Saturday, April 9th, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]

*

How things stay the same, and change!

quo-martyrologies.jpg

The first book cover is that of Abdullah Azzam‘s account of miraculous events associated with shahids / martyrs among the mujahideen in Afghanistan during the fight against the Soviets, while the second is a Dar al-Murabiteen Publications compilation of stories of jihadist martyrdom. In effect, they are both devotional propaganda items, using the deaths of the fallen to inspire the actions of the living:

And call not those who are slain in the way of Allah “dead.” Nay, they are living, only ye perceive not.

Qur’an, 2. 154.

Two shifts are worth noting between the two of them:

First, the Dar al-Murabiteen cover design betrays an awareness of the pop-cultural ubiquity of the undead meme – whether it’s applied in books, games or films, to vampires or zombies… as exemplified here:

undead-warrior-model.jpg

Second, the shift from a classic Islamic to a pop cultural title is accompanied by a shift from a local to a lunar graphic background and from a contemporary armored vehicle silhouette to a silhouette of a mythic horseman-warrior…

The Dar al-Murabiteen effort is thus both more contemporary and more archaic — hip and contemporary to catch the attention of western youth, archaic and mythic to give resonance to the idea that the glorious past, the past of Saladdin, the past of Ali, is lived again in present reality.

That’s master narrative in the form of imagery.


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