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IVN Article:Competition in the Age of Frenemies

Saturday, August 4th, 2012

I have a short piece up at IVN:

Competition in the Age of Frenemies 

competition in the age of frenemies 47130 Competition in the Age of Frenemies

Credit: lib.utexas.edu

Ideology is being replaced by realpolitik in the world political arena, with competition and cooperation between frenemies perhaps becoming the norm. The war on terror began on September 11, 2001 in New York City and Washington DC, where teams of terrorists professing a militant brand of Sunni Islamism killed thousands of Americans using commercial airliners, brought down the World Trade Center, damaged the Pentagon and caused roughly $100 billion in direct and indirect economic damage and possibly $2 trillion in subsequent expenditures on military operations and security.

….By 2012, the global picture has drastically changed. Osama bin Laden is dead and his fanatical followers are able to operate freely only in the poorest, most remote or desolate regions of the earth – northern deserts of Mali, the lawless hinterlands of Yemen, Pakistan’s wild tribal belt and ruined villages in war-torn Syria. Instead of a laser-like focus on al Qaida, the next President will have to  worry more about economic collapse in Europe, China bullying it’s neighbors over the South China Sea, civil wars in Mexico and Syria and Iran’s quest for the nuclear bomb. 

Read the rest here. 

This is a quick synopsis of an idea I am playing with lately.

It is of course, contingent. If Egypt takes a nasty turn and a post-Assad Syria falls to Salafi-Takfiri extremists ( creating a religious variant of the old Nasserite UAR alliance) we might be talking about a “Sunni Axis” with a radicalized Pakistan giving new life to transnational, revolutionary jihadism.

Without that , the prospects for al Qaida’s vision of political Islam look increasingly grim. As the the AQ strategist al-Suri noted, the loss of Afghanistan in 2001 as a secure base of operations, training ground and state sponsor was a heavy blow to the forces of radical Islamism.  A lack of replacement after ten years is an embarrassing state of affairs for a militant movement whose political center of gravity in the Islamic world is the claim of doing God’s will against the infidel.

Techno-Mahdi?

Saturday, August 4th, 2012

[ by Charles Cameron — of no practical importance, yet curious indeed, Mahdism, Pakistani history, shamanism, magic, the Kwakiutl / Tlingit, religion ]
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Kwakiutl Salmon Dancer's mask

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I really don’t have much to say about this, but I’d like to note it as one more instance of Mahdism cropping up in unlikely places. And a h/t to Scott McWilliams @macengr for pointing me to the story. I can’t entirely vouch for its accuracy since I don’t have easy access to 1970s Pakistani newspapers, but I’ve seen allusions to the same story dating back a couple of years

When the Pakistani army and bureaucratic establishment realized that Mujib-ur-Rehman’s Awami League and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s PPP were attracting people—with no other party able to draw even 5000 to its rallies—they imported Zohra Fona, a woman from Indonesia, pregnant with Imam Mehdi. She had visited several Islamic countries, it was propagated, where rulers had offered prayers in her Imamat [i.e. she led the prayers even if a woman is not supposed to do that].

Many Muslim intellectuals and scholars claimed through their writings and lectures that the time for Imam Mehdi’s appearance had arrived. A new Islamic world was about to emerge. During this period the Islamic parties, including Jamat-e-Islami, perpetrated violence. Members started attacking liberal and progressive professors, doctors, writers, journalists as well as their houses. They also burned many libraries and collections of books.

Zohra Fona claimed that the child in her womb recited Azaan [call for prayers] and could lead the prayers. Ulema like Maulana Okarvi and Ehtesham Ul Haque went to see Zohra Fona and listened to Azan with ears close to lady’s womb. Prayer events were arranged for her in open places as well as in the larger mosques, and the Ulema [religious scholars] were praying behind her. She would stretch her legs towards Kaaba [Mecca], directing her womb toward the pulpit. Suddenly Azaan would start coming from her womb or from another private part. The Ulema were so shameless that they were offering prayers while focusing their eyes on her private parts.

Back then the left was very organized so it was difficult to explain this farce. Finally the Pakistan Medical Association and doctors at Jinnah Hospital, Karachi decided to unearth the drama. Several lady gynecologists were asked to help; they knew that this kind of thing could not happen. But Zohra Fona was very clever. Whenever doctors were pursuing her to take a medical examination she avoided with help from the Pakistani security forces. But one day, when she was unable to escape, the doctors of Jinnah hospital, Karachi conducted an examination. The doctors recovered a small tape recorder from her womb.

Does the bit about the tape-recorder in the womb sound a bit far-fetched? Here’s another version, this one from The [International] News:

Zohra Fona, a blessed Indonesian woman, arrived in Pakistan just ahead its first general elections. She was said to be expecting a child who would be Imam Mehdi. She had visited several Islamic countries where, and it was propagated, that rulers had offered prayers in her imamat. Many ulema began to claim that the time for Imam Mehdi’s coming had arrived.

Zohra Fona claimed that the child recited Azaan. Reputed ulema like Maulana Okarvi and Ehteshamul Haque met Zohra Fona and listened to the Azaan with ears close to the lady’s stomach. She began to draw huge crowds to mosques and parks where she led prayers. Our reputed ulema would join the prayers.

Woe betide this country! Some leftist and agnostics at Karachi’s Jinnah Hospital decided to put the legend to scientific test. It was revealed that the holy woman was not even pregnant with an Azan-reciting messiah but had a recording device tied to her body. She immediately left for Indonesia once the farce was exposed.

That sounds more plausible.

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A word of caution here.

Just as theater and film sometimes deploy “deux ex machina” interventions to immerse their audiences more deeply into their created micro-worlds, so have shamanic performances.

I’ve written about this before in an email to a religious scholars’ list, and in these days when even self-plagiarism is disdained, I am going to repeat here what I wrote then, with very minor changes:

It’s my recollection that [Tlingit / Kwakiutl winter ceremonials] were both entertainment for the long winter nights and “schooling” for the young, and I have a vivid recall of reading somewhere a shaman’s admission to an anthro of the exact nature of the dramatic means by which the shaman’s capacity to defeat death was demonstrated.

I read this in the early eighties, but searching on the web I’ve found something that comes close — Clellan Stearns Ford’s record of Charles James Nowell’s memories in _Smoke from their fires: the life of a Kwakiutl chief_. Around p 120, there are two stories, the first about a girl who “turned the wrong way” during a dance, the second about a girl who is put in a box and burned. In both cases, the nature of the trickery is described but in the version I read all those years ago, the two stories were one — the girl who was put in a box in the fire pit and “burned to death” escapes through a false bottom to the box along a tunnel into the adjoining room, and her voice then issues as if from her ashes, via a kelp tube that goes from the tunnel to the adjoining room where she’s now standing.

She describes her descent into the sea realm, where she is chastened and eventually granted a boon to return to the tribe. A canoe sets out to fetch her, but by the time the audience sees it set out, she’s already secured by rope to the far side of the boat, and at a suitable distance is hauled aboard and brought back to shore, alive.

A child seeing this would be mightily predisposed to believing the shaman had healing powers, and by the time the ruse was revealed, that underpinning of faith is already in place.

In the Nowell version, even the adults, who “know” the deception involved, are deceived: “The fire burned and the box burned, and she was still singing inside, and then the box go up in flames, and they can see her burning there in her blue blanket, and all her relatives just cry and cry. Although they know it is not real, it looks so real they can’t help it. It was all a trick. There was a hole under the box with a tunnel leading out of the house, and the woman went out of the box and put a seal in her place wrapped in a blue blanket, and then someone sang into the fire through a kelp tube, her song. Oh, it looked real!”

The Winter ceremonials of the Pacific Northwestern tribes are by turns opera, history, religion and “general education” to the children of the tribe, and “continuing education” to their elders…

Do we have anything to equal them?

Bearing such things in mind, we may want to consider trickery — a quality of the trickster gods, after all, in many mythologies — a not entirely illegitimate activity for a religious performer…

Boyd & Beyond 2012—-Draft Agenda Announcement

Friday, August 3rd, 2012
[by J. Scott Shipman]
Photo credit: Zenpundit

We’re a little over 60 days out.

This is the draft agenda for Boyd & Beyond 2012. If you are listed as a speaker and cannot, please let us know. If you wanted to speak/were promised a spot and didn’t make the agenda, let us know. We had more speakers than the two days would allow.

This is an all volunteer event. If anyone wants to volunteer to bring coffee and water, let us know. I’ve taken care of it for the last couple of years and we’ve gone through 10 gallons/day. Additionally, we’ve had someone bring bagels in the past.Lunch will be ordered out—last year it was pizza. If you see a problem, let us know. Many thanks!

Boyd and Beyond 2012 Friday 12 October

0730-0815 Stan Coerr intro

0815-0945 Present at the Creation

Chet Richards: Closing the OODA Loop: Boyd, the Conceptual Spiral, and the Meaning of Life (60 min)

Greg Wilcox: Boyd’s: People, Ideas, and Things, In That Order (30 min)

Dr. Terry Barnhart : Ten-Minute Teaching Modules throughout conference

Break

1000-1200 The Rise of the Marines

Brigadier General Stacy Clardy USMC: John Boyd, Quantico and Marine Corps Enlightenment (60 min)

Break

Captain Paul Tremblay USMC: Boyd and Bravo Company: Tempo in Ground Combat (60 min)

Terry for Ten

1230 Lunch brought in

Terry for Ten

1245-1345 Boyd and the Real World

Katya Drozdova: Afghanistan, Force and Tempo (30 min)
Marshall Wallace: NGO Team Decision Cycles in Crisis: Boyd in Action (30 min)

Terry for Ten

1345-ENDEX Holding the Grail

Mike Miller: The Boyd Archives: Lecture and Tour Round-Robin

To archives: small groups, 30 minutes each

Concurrent in classroom: Case Method Instructors (Bruce Gudmundsson/Damien O’Connell).

GI Wilson: How it Happened

Boyd and Beyond 2012 Saturday 13 October

Terry for Ten

0800-1030 Boyd and Bad Guys

Sid Heal: The Five-Dimensional Battlespace (60 min)

Break

Fred Leland: The Anatomy of Victory : Winning at Low Cost (60 min)
Adam Elkus: OODA and Robotic Weapons (30 min)

1030-1230 Boyd in Battle : Insurgency

Pete Turner: Human Terrain Systems and COIN (30 min)
Tom Hayden: Boyd and COIN (60 min)
Mike Grice: The Second O: The Effect of COIN on Orientation (30 min)

Terry for Ten

1100-1330 Boyd and Business

Jake Wood and William McNulty: Boyd and Bureaucracy: Starting Rubicon (90 min)

1230 Lunch brought in

David Diehl: Boyd in the Cyber Conflict Domain (30 min)
Mike Grice & Jonathan Brown: Boyd Cycle in High-Pressure Business (30 min)

Terry for Ten

1330-1500 Boyd and Your Brain

Chris Cox: Boyd and Politics (30 min)

Break

Michael Moore: WinBowl II (60 min)

Break

1515-1545 Boyd and Beyond IV Silicon Valley Spring 2013

Stan Coerr: Next Steps

Cross-posted at To Be or To Do

Writer’s Block

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

Lately, I have been struggling with a moderate case of writer’s block.

Some of the problem stems from a growing weariness of returning time and again to limited number of subjects.  I admire those who can drill a very narrow topical field day in a day out , but to me that feels like a rut and a rut soon leads to boredom.  Consequently, I now find myself staring at a computer screen rather more often than typing away at the keyboard and not enjoying it.

A second problem, I suspect, is too often trying to persevere in writing in an unsuitable, chaotic, environment full of distractions. As anyone who writes with seriousness knows, loved ones will ignore you for hours on end, but should you sit down to write anything you will suddenly become a magnet for children, the dog, your spouse, phone calls from old friends and neighbors at the door . Stringing words coherently becomes difficult because writing is an art, not a component of multitasking.

So today, I did something different.

Instead of sitting at my desk, I went outside and sat at the patio table in the sun and fresh air. The electronic devices were left inside, but I brought a long, yellow legal pad and a medium thickness blue sharpie ( I’d have preferred black). I lit a Cohiba and had an ice cold beer with me and a couple of books, in case I felt like reading ( The Makers of Strategy and Everitt’s bio of  Hadrian). It was unusually quiet.

And then I began to write. Bullet points, notes, phrases, diagrams interspersed with some sketching. Some notes were connected to others with arrows. Ideas were flowing (some were crossed out later) and the rough approximation of an argument took shape. It was’t a moment of epiphany – just a solid, uninterrupted, focused, productive hour of writing and deep reflection that filled a couple of pages on my legal pad. How uncommon that has become.

And after that, I felt much better.


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