The Health Care Bill’s Effect on the Next Election
I don’t know what the ultimate effects of the Health Care Bill will be because….well….no one has actually read this far reaching, highly partisan, Democratic legislation. I’m not sure even the Congressional leaders can state categorically what they just voted on. Support and opposition was largely faith-based.
I can say that the 2010 election is going to be brutal.
March 22nd, 2010 at 12:17 pm
"Support and opposition was largely faith-based."
Agree with that. But I think that in 8 months, the health care stuff will be largely forgotten. People that will be still pissed about it are people that would have voted GOP anyways. Democrats will lose lots of seats because pretty much every marginal seat is currently held by a Democrat. But I think jobs and the economy will determine the midterms much more than the health care bill that just passed.
March 22nd, 2010 at 2:31 pm
They will lose not because of healthcare (a creation of another entitlement that benefits tens of millions of Americans, including the middle class women and men who’ve been ill in the past and were unable to get insurance afterwards) but because of jobs. I have not yet seen an economist or labor analyst who has forecasted anything below 9% unemployment going through to 2012, maybe even beyond through the middle of the decade. That won’t be Obama or Bush’s fault as much as the result of a fundamental shift in the economy, especially with businesses realizing there are a lot of things they can go without in order to retain profitability. We haven’t even gotten to the massive state and local layoffs yet as budgets get crunched over the next few years. I am almost certain everyone who comments here who has worked in the private sector in the past 2 years has some anecdotal evidence of this (my old job has shortened shifts, drastically reduced excess man-hours, fought tooth and nail to exact every last ounce of efficiency from workers, and halved manpower by nearly half without damaging customer service, plant production or data entry integrity, etc.) In the long run, I still agree with David Frum. The GOP had its chance but let the talk radio hosts and the bloggers dominate the conversation and preach no surrender, no negotiation. Accusing Obama of rank partisanship on this is a questionable accusation when you consider the behavior of the Republicans (proved by memos and notes released in the past few weeks detailing the steps Boehner and McConnell went to derailing any ideological wavering by their caucus) most of the features of this plan stem from Republican ideas (including the healthcare reform plans presented in 1993, 2000, and 2008 by Gingrich, Bush & McCain) over the past 30 years. Most of the liberal stuff (especially the public option, their big hope) is not in there, though the tax hikes on small businesses (which are the most damaging of all) are something that can be removed and changed by Republicans in 2011 once they take back the House, if they’re willing to actually negotiate with the president in good faith and find an alternative.In the end just another largely unfunded entitlement. The GOP and Democrats know a lot about that…. elements of both parties passed the half a trillion (and more in the long run) Medicare Part D legislation and the Bush tax cuts in a time of war without paying for them. The same seniors who have raged against Obama in the past 2 years will be among his strongest supporters if the GOP is politically suicidal enough to try to repeal the bill and anger tens of millions of Americans, especially seniors who got their pricey donut hole for medications pain in the rear removed.That’s the beauty and danger of entitlements. Once you create them, they’re damn hard to kill without killing yourself.
March 22nd, 2010 at 4:38 pm
How do you know it is "far reaching, highly partisan," if "no one has actually read" it?
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The answer to your question may hinge upon the who, the how, and the how well the whole thing is spun.
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My general intuition is this: If Dems cannot motivate their voters to turn out for the midterm, the Dems are done for. If on the other hand they can get turnout, the outcome might not be quite so bad. So it will turn on turnout. (I suspect Dems will spend more time justifying/selling the health care plan than in delivering the message: TURN OUT!)
March 22nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm
This reminds me of the runup to the Iraq invasion. Highly divisive, highly politicized and hyped issue that the party in power expended all of their political capital on to ram through, despite half or more of the country being in opposition or undecided. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
March 22nd, 2010 at 5:25 pm
"How do you know it is far-reaching and highly partisan…."
March 22nd, 2010 at 6:41 pm
I don’t get the concept Schmedlap brings up of "expending political capital." Did a bunch of Dem Congressional Reps expire on the House floor during the vote, leaving the GOP with a majority? If not, the Democrats can still pass whatever they want (barring filibuster). After a big partisan stimulus bill, Congress then did a big partisan climate change bill, followed by a big partisan health care bill. This will be followed (hopefully) by a big partisan financial regulation bill. The concept of spending political capital is silly.
March 22nd, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Adrian,The Democrats who sided with Obama on this issue are now going to be trying to distance themselves from him before the mid-term elections. Don’t take my word for that. I just heard that exact sentiment stated by three different political commentators on three different news programs.
March 24th, 2010 at 3:34 am
I just wonder if the Left will try to push "comprehensive immigration reform" (read: amnesty for illegals) before the 2010 election?
March 24th, 2010 at 4:29 am
Seerov,
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I think so. Political gamble though depending on unemployment.
March 28th, 2010 at 4:05 am
No one can really predict the effect of the health care bill to the people. It’s too soon to tell. But one thing is sure, those who voted for it will be voted out in the coming elections.