zenpundit.com

[ by Charles Cameron — coffee on the rocks with blarney ]
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Seamus Hughes tweets:

Dunkin donuts are hotspots of radicalization. Trust me, I have an anecdotal evidence. pic.twitter.com/pPyxRbVhqA

— Seamus Hughes (@SeamusHughes) March 4, 2016

to which JM responds, rapidfire:

.@SeamusHughes Yet again it's up to me to point out that this has been going on forever pic.twitter.com/k4Dr6g1KaD

— J.M. Berger (@intelwire) March 4, 2016

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For the record, that’s not just idle Twitter, that’s actionable intelligence:

. @Dsterms finally. A unifying theory of homegrown terrorism. Check Dunkin kiosk saturation in the twin cities.

— Seamus Hughes (@SeamusHughes) March 4, 2016

[ by Charles Cameron — a simple jeu d’esprit ]
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It’s actually rather sweet, and possibly a matter of GMTA, but Aaron Zelin and Dan Byman both favor a word I’m fond of myself: archipelago.

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Aaron noted the commonalities of topic and phrasing, and tweeted:

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery pic.twitter.com/0xVzGm7cCg

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) February 21, 2016

to which Phillip Smyth responded:

@azelin Happens to the best of us…
That's why, post-coup, we go after editors first. 😉 pic.twitter.com/xuPDWP98eH

— Phillip Smyth (@PhillipSmyth) February 21, 2016

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Phillip’s example of imitation / flattery involves a pun on the name of the Prophet’s first battle, that of Badr:

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Please note that there is absolutely nothing to be gained from these juxtapositions but sheer delight — there’s no “actionable intelligence” therein — yet two extremely sharp analysts nevertheless find them of sufficient interest to exchange tweets about them.

An eye for symmetries, similarities, parallelisms and oppositions will not always come up with useful correlations, but it’s nonetheless an aspect of mind that’s close to both creativity (see Arthur Koestler) and what bin Laden analyst Cindy Storer (in Manhunt) called “magic” —

not the analysts doing it, but other people who didn’t have that talent referred to it as magic.

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Sources:

Aaron Zelin, The Islamic State’s Archipelago of Provinces

Daniel Byman, The Islamic State Archipelago

Phillip Smyth, Hizballah Cavalcade: Breaking Badr

Suzannah George, Breaking Badr

The useful analysis is in the sources, and the useful description of analytic magic is currently easily accessible at the 9’14” point in HBO’s Manhunt on YouTube.

[ by Charles Cameron — bribery regarding bribery in Ukraine and Iraq, form & pattern recognition as analytic markers ]
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You might think it would be difficut to cap this, from Ukraine, which I quoted recently:

#Ukraine busts a prosecutor who tried to pay a $10k bribe for job in anti-corruption bureau https://t.co/cALDTIPpz3 pic.twitter.com/aZfE8Q5EZK

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 17, 2016

but I believe this, from Iraq, just might do the trick:

Iraq anti-corruption chief: "Everybody is corrupt, from the top of society to the bottom. Everyone. Including me.” https://t.co/7arNBklYSE

— Borzou Daragahi (@borzou) February 19, 2016

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Let me be explicit.

As an observer of the global scene, these two tweets are about bribery and corruption — but they are also recursive. As an analyst, I find that formal property, present in each case, compelling: these are not simply example of corruption, but of the corruption of the anti-corruption process.

But there’s more, there’s yet another form here, a pattern which allows us to connect otherwise unrelated dots. It is found in the doubling effect of the quick succession of the Ukrainean and Iraqi tweets. This pattern is that of repetition — more fancifully put, echo or rhyme. We see here something more than a simple isolated incident no matter how interesting — an being cognizant of that, we can be on the alert for it elsewhere in the future.

To the heuristics follow the money and cherchez la femme, I’d add take note of the form — use pattern recognition as an analytic tool to cut across disciplines and silos, and thus capture aspects of life’s complexity that the trammels of linear cause-and-effect thinking will tend to miss.

For the DoubleQuotes aficionado, these two tweets are a rich haul indeed.

[ bu Charles Cameron — paging Jackson Pollock ]
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Liz Sly has the overview:

The Munich meeting on Syria kicks off, around a carpet that provides a handy guide to the situation on the ground pic.twitter.com/mYIJTTfchO

— Liz Sly (@LizSly) February 11, 2016

Karl Sharro provides the specifics:

Following recent event, updated diagram of geopolitical relationships in the Middle East pic.twitter.com/3QmDxZtnSn

— Karl Sharro (@KarlreMarks) March 26, 2015

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For “Muddle East” — hat-tip Ralph Birnbaum.

[ by Charles Cameron — silly fun.. ]
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I’d say that here Kim Jong-Un —

Escaped rhinoceros from Pyongyang Zoological Park wrestled into submission by Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un, saving over thirty schoolchildren.

— DPRK News Service (@DPRK_News) January 27, 2016

would easily Trump, ahem, Vladimir Putin —

Me killing it on @60Minutes tonight! #USSR #Badass pic.twitter.com/AsPwPtbDPP

— KGBPutin (@KgbPutin) September 28, 2015

if he’d had access toi a camera and Photoshop.