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On the Road

Saturday, June 4th, 2011

In a few days, I will be headed to the US Army War College to become a new member of their National Security Seminar, an honor I owe entirely to the kind offices of Dr. Steven Metz, as Big Steve saw fit to nominate me. Once at Carlisle, I will have the opportunity to participate with AWC students in a variety of sessions and discussions related to national security and strategy and hear speakers who are top experts in their field. The keynote, if I understand correctly, will be given by General David Petraeus. The liason assigned to me, Col. Richard “Flip” Wilson, has been gracious and friendly and I am very much looking forward to visiting the War College, meeting new friends and learning a thing or two.

My blogging here at ZP may be erratic next week, though Charles and Scott will carry on in my absence, but I will try to put up a few items or pictures as time and internet connectivity permits. Twitter may be a much better bet for frequent updates and I can be followed @zenpundit for readers who are interested.

Please Welcome our New Zenpundit Co-Blogger, J. Scott Shipman

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Late last year, after years of solo blogging, I invited Charles Cameron to become a permanent member of Zenpundit.com. That has worked out so well that I am bringing aboard another blogger who, like Charles, can bring his own insights, interests and considerable expertise in aspects of national security affairs to bear here for the enrichment of the blog and enjoyment of the readers.

 I would like to formally welcome J. Scott Shipman to Zenpundit.com.

To introduce  Scott more fully than the line from previous guest posts…” he is a self-employed consultant, speaker, writer (and now “blogger”), avid reader, autodidact, father, and husband. Scott has a wide variety of interests including; fractal geometry, complexity theory, philosophy, history, management theory, systems theory, cognitive psychology, neurology/neuroeconomics, design theory, literature, international relations, politics, law and legal theory, the ideas of the late Colonel John Boyd, strategy, Calvinist-lite theology, mind maps, geography, fishing for smallmouth bass on the Potomac river, and golf.

Scott is the owner of SHIPMAN Federal Services, Inc., a consulting firm he established in 2004 that specializes in the application of John Boyd’s leadership strategies in the workplace. Scott provides his customers with unique insight on issues of leadership, organizational culture, and strategic planning, using what he calls “an uncommon-common sense approach.”

Previously, Scott served at BAE Systems, which he joined in October 1996. During his years at BAE Systems Scott led the Strategic Planning and Nuclear Safety group, and was integral in the planning of the first two TRIDENT II D5 submarine Backfits. In addition he was Division Head of Integrated Test Programs, with responsibility for shipyard testing and performance analysis of all navy submarine Strategic Weapon Systems, both in the United States and the United Kingdom. Scott was responsible for six other field facilities located adjacent to naval shipyards and naval installations. Scott concluded his service at BAE Systems as Director of Business Development with responsibility for the naval undersea warfare business area. While on active duty, Scott served at sea on the commissioning crew of USS PENNSYLVANIA (SSBN-735) and in USS VON STEUBEN (SSBN-632), and ashore in various commands. In his final tour of active duty Scott served for five years at the On-Site Inspection Agency an arms control inspector and deputy mission commander enforcing the INF and START treaties. In this capacity, Scott traveled throughout the former Soviet Union and the Republic of Korea in support of international arms control agreements and humanitarian missions.
J. Scott is married to his lovely wife and business partner, Kristen. They have four children, two dogs, and two cats and reside in the Commonwealth of Virginia.”

Welcome aboard Scott!

Barnett at Battleland: “Right out of John Boyd’s strategy…”

Monday, May 9th, 2011

Dr. Barnett is now a blogger for TIME Magazine’s Battleland

Right out of John Boyd’s strategy: disconnect, isolate & disempower your enemy

But Osama, looking far older than his 54 years, had none of that.  He was down to just a sad little entourage, and his comms were reduced to thumb drives smuggled in now and then. He is isolated, almost imprisoned, and he looks like a man sapped of all vitality.

…This is right out of American strategist John Boyd’s playbook:  you beat your enemy by isolating him, denying him allies, keeping him in the dark and – bit by bit – wearing down his energy: “Interaction permits vitality and growth, while isolation leads to decay and disintegration.” 

Read the rest here.

The al-Qaeda Statement on bin Laden’s Death

Friday, May 6th, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]
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obl-death-announcement-aqc.gif

McGill grad student and blog-friend Christopher Anzalone (Ibn Siqilli) has blogged the al-Qaeda Statement on bin Laden’s Death (see above), and the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) has posted an English translation.

The statement is headed “In the name of God”, declaries its authorship to be “The al-Qaeda Organisation – General Leadership”, uses the epigraph “You have lived in glory and died as a martyr” and is titled “A statement about the dignity and martyrdom of Sheikh Osama bin Laden, may Allah have mercy on him”.

A few quick notes on the ICSR text:

Bin Laden is described as:…

the mujahid leader zahid [aesthetic] muhajir [immigrant], Sheikh Abu Abdullah Osama bin Mohammed bin Laden

I am pretty sure the meaning of “zahid” is closer to “ascetic” (pious, self-denying) than “aesthetic” – a not infrequent confusion — and “mujahir” which I have seen translated both “emigrant” and “immigrant” today, means one who, like the Prophet leaving Mecca for Medina in what is known as Hijra, has left his home in service to God.

He was killed in a moment of sincerity where he combined words and actions, with dawah and proof to join the caravan of great leaders, loyal soldiers and honest knights who refused to let their religion fall to a lower status …

The phrase “honest knights” is of interest, with its suggestion of chivalry (and thus implicit link with Salah ad-Din / Saladdin).

He faced weapons with weapons, force with force, and he accepted the challenge of arrogant forces who came with machinery, weapons, aircraft, and troops to subjugate the people. He was neither weak before them, nor did he capitulate.

I take this to be a counter to American statements that he was unarmed: he may not have had a weapon to hand at the time of death, but in a longer perspective he was a fighter who “kept fighting a battle with which he was familiar, and from which he did not desist” as the next phrase has it.

Then comes an astonishing rhetorical flourish to describe the man who brought down the Twin Towers, a sort of triumphant book-ending of the two moments:

However, he challenged them face to face, like a towering building which no one can surmount.

We should compare here his own remark shortly after 9/11, “What was destroyed were not only the towers, but the towers of morale in that country” and again in 2004, “… as I looked at those demolished towers in Lebanon, it entered my mind that we should punish the oppressor in kind and that we should destroy towers in America…”

Here, from the perspective of AQ Central, is his mortality, and the form that his immortality will take:

… the life of the Sheikh of jihad of our times has ended, so that his blood, words, stances, and finality will stay as a spirit that will run through the body of Muslim generations for years to come.

See also (for what I’ll call “metaphoric immortality”) al-Awlaki’s description of a person like Qutb, who “wrote with ink and his own blood” and others like him, “and after they died it was as if Allah made their soul enter their words to make it alive; it gives their words a new life”.

I have no doubt that the symbolic tone of the piece will have powerful impact on peoples – Arab and Pashtun among others – with a keen ear for poetry:

The blood of the mujahid Sheikh Osama bin Laden is more precious to us and every Muslim than to simply be spilled in vain. We assure there will be a curse hunting the Americans and their agents, chasing them both outside and inside their countries. Soon, God willing, their joy will turn to sadness and blood will mix with their tears.

Finally and fairly ironically – it is dated 3 May 2011 but was issued on the forums today, May 6 — the piece ends with this warning:

We are warning the Americans against humiliating the corpse of the Sheikh or mistreating any of his dignified family members whether alive or dead. The corpse should be delivered to the families. Any mistreatment will only increase your hell, for which you will only have yourselves to blame.

I am sure others will view this document from different angles and provide further informative commentary – these are the pieces of the picture which drew my attention.

On jihadist succession and strategy [money quote]

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron ]

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Here’s an early indicator of jihadist strategic thinking from Sheikh Husain b. Mahmoud on the Ansar forums — Leah F calls him “a very influential figure, and not only in the virtual world” — via Aaron Zelin‘s fine collection & collation of jihadist source materials on his Jihadology blog (link to safe-for-download English version):

I call all the Mujahideen of the world and all their supporters, to prevent their tears from flowing and to keep their rage to themselves, so that it can act as a volcano which explodes at its proper time. We do not want sporadic operations of vengeance. Rather, we want special operations which are properly planned out, with wisdom and patience, so that it can bear its fruit, and make America forget the attacks on Washington and New York, and say goodbye to the good old days. This is an extremely important matter, as individual and random operations of vengeance usually have negative effects, and as crying and showing ones sadness brings joy to the enemies of Allah. It is incumbent upon the leaders of Jihad to rearrange their cards and announce a successor to Sheikh Usama, may Allah have mercy on him, and then start to plan the coming stages with experience, looking into what is in the greater interest of the Ummah.

To be read in the context of Leah Farrall‘s excellent piece Wanted: Charismatic Terror Mastermind – Some Travel Required in Foreign Affairs yesterday.


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