Recently, commenter L.C. Rees brought to our attention Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer, one of the rare sort of CIA officers who spent decades in both the Directorate of Operations and the Directorate of Intelligence. I have been thumbing through Heuer’s work and if you have an interest in metacognition, analytical clarity, and cognitive biases, this book is for you.
[ by Charles Cameron — one bead from NASA for the glass bead game as rosary ]
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photo credit: Norman Kuring, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
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Consider her sacred, treat her with care.
Bruce Kesler –“Existential Defeatism” Abroad and at Home
….Restraint in foreign engagements, particularly military, is certainly to be prized unless clear US national interests, mechanisms, and follow-through plans are pretty clearly present, and articulated by our national political leaders so necessary to domestic support. However, instead, what we’ve increasingly seen is muddling and disparagement of the very concept of US national interests, substituting outright negativity, conceptual distractions, and refusal to actively engage unless elusive or impossible international consensus is reached, to include Russia and China who aren’t shy about exerting themselves actively in opposition to US or Western interests. In effect, as well, the US and Western Europe have too often abandoned its moral core, as well, to the favor of those who don’t share it or deride or hate it.
Kings of War (David Betz) –My correct views on COIN and Beyond the Cloister Redux: A Case for the Militarisation of Higher Education*
….But I digress, the point is that it cuts both ways: You can’t educate good strategists without acculturating them to certain military realities, which I think at present we really aren’t doing very well. How can we trust people to make good strategic evaluations if we don’t equip them with some technical familiarity with the instruments of military power and bolster their sense of judgment with extra lashings of military history? A strategist who doesn’t grasp details, let alone one who is contemptuous of them, is going to be a bad strategist.
Anne-Marie Slaughter –Why Women Still Can’t Have It All
….Yet the decision to step down from a position of power—to value family over professional advancement, even for a time—is directly at odds with the prevailing social pressures on career professionals in the United States. One phrase says it all about current attitudes toward work and family, particularly among elites. In Washington, “leaving to spend time with your family” is a euphemism for being fired.
Venkat Rao –Analysis-Paralysis and The Sensemaking Trap
Attention Boydians……
Fred Leland –Winning at Low Cost: No better friend, no better role model, no better diplomat and, no worse enemy
Attention Boydians…..
Small Wars Journal –Things I Learned from People Who Tried to Kill Me
Shlok Vaidya –REVIEW – BUSINESS MODEL GENERATION: A HANDBOOK FOR VISIONARIES, GAME CHANGERS, AND CHALLENGERS
IntelWire -THE CIA’S SECRET AL QAEDA FILES
Outside Magazine -INTERVIEW ISSUE 2012: ADVENTURER ROBERT YOUNG PELTON ON DANGEROUS PLACES
AFJ –THE MILITARIZATION OF THE PRESIDENCY
John Seely Brown, Douglas Thomas – Learning for a World of Constant Change: Homo Sapiens, Homo Faber & Homo Ludens revisited
HONOR THY FRIENDS DEPARTMENT:
Carl Prine – Hank III kicks ass!!!
Command Posts –DOCTRINE MAN!! SAVING THE WORLD WITHOUT A PLAN
[ by Charles Cameron — some recent game references with seriously playful intent ]
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Two things, really.
If you read the Jerusalem Post, you’ll likely have seen that:
Iran, Russia, China and Syria will hold the Middle East’s largest ever war game, Iranian news outlets reported quoting unnamed sources.
According to the report, 90,000 troops, 400 warplanes and 1,000 tanks from the four countries will take part in land and sea exercises. The war games will feature Russian atomic submarines, according to Iranian media, as well as warships, aircraft carriers and mine-clearing destroyers. Semi-official Iranian FARS news agency stated that the exercise was being planned in coordination with Egypt, which recently acceded to grant the passage of 12 Chinese warships through the Suez Canal. The report stated that the Chinese naval convoy is due to dock in Syrian harbors within the next two weeks.
That’s pretty much on the materiel side of things, IMO.
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On the other hand, if you read Joel Rosenberg, you’ll have seen all that and more — and then this:
The story is particularly intriguing — and disturbing — in light of Bible prophecies in Ezekiel 38-39 that indicate a Russian-Iranian military alliance will develop in the “last days” to attack the nation of Israel. In my first nonfiction book, Epicenter, and in my novel, The Ezekiel Option, I describe these prophecies in detail. While it remains too early to know for certain if the “War of Gog and Magog” prophecies are going to be fulfilled in the near future, geopolitical trends in recent years and even in recent months have been curiously consistent with the ancient Biblical text. A militaristic Czar — Vladimir Putin — has risen to power in Russia. Putin is the only Russian leader in history to visit Israel (7 years ago), and is preparing to visit again on June 25, trying to make the Israelis feel comfortable with him. Yet Russia has been selling billions of dollars in arms to Iran and other nations described in the prophecies. Russia is currently sending naval ships and forces to Syria. Israelis are living more securely in the land, and are more prosperous, than ever in their modern history, also consistent with the prophecies.
Followed without a paragraph break by:
To learn more about the prophecies of Ezekiel 38-39, please click here.
And the headline?
That’s more morale than materiel, I’d say!
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So that’s Thing One, as Dr Seuss might put it. But what about Thing Two?
The big, apocalyptic war games are for big fellows like Gog, Magog and Putin, guys who can afford to wear the big-boy pants.
What about the little guys and gals?
That, YNet tells us, is where a spot tourism might come in handy…
Gush Etzion has become a hot destination in recent months for tourists seeking an Israeli experience like no other: The opportunity to pretend-shoot a terror operative. Residents of the nearby settlements, who run the site, offer day-trippers a chance to hear stories from the battleground, watch a simulated assassination of terrorists by guards, and fire weapons at the range.
The fact that the tourist attraction is located beyond the Green Line only intensifies the thrill for the visitors, who often appear disappointed when told by their guides that they are not in any danger.
That strikes me as just a tad messianic, too… in a very post-modern sort of way.
Cute pic from that YNet article, photo credit Alex Kolomoisky:
To judge by the surrounding text, that young lady’s from Miami. She’s five.
[ by Charles Cameron — some recent game references with seriously playful intent ]
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Image from a 1975 TRADOC bulletin, now declassified
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I thought we should check out the “strategy” section of ChaCha’s How Do I Win Rock Paper Scissors Every Time?
Good. Well that’s settled, then?
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